EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1129
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Friday began with a firmer American dollar, but the greenback softened as US stocks trimmed losses and investors took some profits out of the table ahead of the close. Stronger US inflation data gave the dollar a lift early in the US session, as US CPI for January came in stronger than expected, with the headline rate unchanged on the month, and the core rate rising by 0.3%mom. Headline inflation in January is now double that in December at 1.4%YoY, with the core rate is now at 2.2%, above the previous 2.1%. In Europe however, things were not that bright. German´s index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 2.4% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year, and by 0.7% compared to December 2015, while later in the day, data showed that consumer confidence in the Eurozone has plummeted to -8.8 in February from a reading of -6.3 the month before.
Nevertheless, the dollar edged lower and the EUR/USD pair closed the day with gains, after a five-day losing streak. Technically the daily chart shows that the price has managed to hold above a still bullish 20 SMA, yet at the same time, the lower highs daily basis and the fact that the Momentum indicator turned south and nears its 100 level, suggests the risk remains towards the downside for the upcoming week. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is quite flat, with the technical indicators heading nowhere around their mid-lines, and the price stuck around a bearish 100 SMA.
Support levels: 1.1080 1.1045 1.1000
Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1200 1.1245
EUR/JPY Current price: 125.36
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The EUR/JPY pair closed the week at its lowest since June 2013, having extended its decline below the 126.00 level on a run towards safety. The ongoing market turmoil will likely maintain the yen on demand during the upcoming days, which is also supported by the usual March rally in the Japanese currency, ahead of the end of the fiscal year. The downside potential has accelerated during the past week, and the decline seems poised to continue, given that the daily chart shows that, by the end of the week, the technical indicators retained their strong bearish slopes, whilst the price continued retreating from a bearish 100 SMA, currently around 130.65. In the shorter term and according to the 4 hours chart, the bias is also towards the downside, as the technical indicators remain near oversold levels, with no aims of turning higher, whilst the price extended further below its moving averages.
Support levels: 125.00 124.40 123.90
Resistance levels: 125.80 126.40 126.95
GBP/USD Current price: 1.4358
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The GBP/USD pair managed to close Friday with gains above the 1.4300 level, but down on the week, weighed by fears over a Brexit. The 28 members of the EU met last Thursday and Friday, to discuss British conditions to remain within the region. Right after the closing bell, European Union leaders reached a deal aimed at keeping the UK in the bloc, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said, which may result in the Pound gapping higher at the beginning of the next week. The daily chart shows that Friday's recovery helped the RSI indicator to turn higher, although the indicator remains well below its mid-line, while the Momentum indicator heads lower below its 100 level. In the same chart, the 20 SMA has lost its upward strength around 1.4460, providing a strong resistance in the case of some gains this Monday. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price managed to accelerate beyond a horizontal 20 SMA before beginning to consolidate, leaving the technical indicators with no certain direction, but above their mid-lines, which limits chances of a decline, at least in the short term.
Support levels: 1.4340 1.4290 1.4240
Resistance levels: 1.4370 1.4410 1.4460
USD/JPY Current price: 112.64
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The USD/JPY pair closed a third straight week to the downside, edging lower on Friday on safe-haven demand, and as US crude oil ended the week below $30.00 a barrel. The Japanese currency has appreciated sharply after a short lived decline following BOJ's decision to cut rates into negative territory, and speculation grows that the Central Bank will take action to lower the value of the yen. Nevertheless, the pair keeps falling and the daily chart shows that the latest advance has been just enough for the technical indicators to correct extreme oversold readings. Ahead of a new weekly opening, the RSI indicator has turned back south near 30, while the Momentum aims slightly higher, still far from showing upward strength. In the same chart, the 100 and 200 SMAs are turning south far above the current level, being irrelevant at the time being. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators head lower within bearish territory, whilst the moving averages have accelerated their declines, but also remain well above the current level. Should the decline extend beyond 112.10, the pair will likely retest the 111.00 region next week, and even extend its decline towards 110.00.
Support levels: 112.90 112.50 112.10
Resistance levels: 112.85 113.35 113.70
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7148
View Live Chart for the AUD/USD
The Aussie posted a shallow advance against the greenback last week, but it managed to end with gains for a fifth week in-a-row, not far from its year high set at 0.7242 late January. The Australian dollar has been steadily rising ever since bottoming around 0.6830, and is clear that bulls keep controlling the AUD/USD pair, as on Friday, it plummeted to a fresh weekly low before erasing all of its daily losses to close around 0.7150. If something, market turmoil and commodities woes are the reasons why the rallies have been limited. Nevertheless, the technical picture still supports the upside, as in daily chart, the price continues developing well above a bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned slightly lower within positive territory, not yet confirming a bearish move. In the 4 hours chart, the pair maintains a neutral stance, given that the technical indicators are unable to grab some directional strength and remain stuck around their mid-lines, whilst the price is moving back and forth around a horizontal 20 SMA. In the same chart, however, declines towards the 200 EMA, currently around 0.7100, have consistently attract buying interest, maintaining the risk towards the upside.
Support levels: 0.7100 0.7070 0.7025
Resistance levels: 0.7190 0.7240 0.7285
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