EUR/USD: dollar extends gains after good Retail Sales data

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1233

The American dollar posted a tepid recovery during the first half of the day, advancing against most of its major rivals amid easing risk aversion. European stocks opened higher and stood in the green, although with limited gains, whilst oil prices consolidate above $27.00 a barrel after bottoming near $26.00 during the previous American session. In Europe, news were mixed, as the EU and Germany GDPs showed that both grew by 0.3% during the last quarter of 2015, matching expectations. In Germany, inflation grew by 0.5% during January this year, in line with market's expectations, but negative news come from the EU industrial sector, as Industrial Production during December plummeted 1.0% monthly basis, leaving the year-on-year reading at minus 1.3% during the same month. Dollar's advance continued until the release of US data, showing that Retail Sales in January advanced more than expected, up 0.2% higher monthly basis and by 0.1% compared to a year before. Despite positive, data was for the most tepid, albeit enough to push the dollar even higher.

The EUR/USD pair trades at a fresh 2-day low, and the hourly chart shows that the decline is extending below the 100 SMA, while the 20 SMA has turned strongly lower in the 1.1300 region, and the technical indicators head south within bearish territory, supporting some additional declines, should market's mood remain positive. In the 4 hours chart, the current candle is extending below its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators head lower below their mid-lines, in line with the shorter term outlook. Below 1.1200, the decline can accelerate on profit taking, and see the pair down to 1.1120 by the end of the day.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1290 1.1335

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4487

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair advanced up to 1.4569 during the European morning, as risk aversion eased, but retreated from the level towards the 1.4500 region ahead of the release of US data. The short term decline extended after better-than-expected US macroeconomic figures, and the pair is gaining short term bearish strength, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is pressuring its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned sharply lower, and are about to cross their mid-lines towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is neutral, with the indicators turning lower around their mid-lines, and the price a few pips above a mild bullish 20 SMA. Should the price break below 1.4450, the immediate support, further declines could be seen, down to the 1.4350 region, a strong Fibonacci support and this week low.

Support levels: 1.4450 1.4400 1.14350

Resistance levels: 1.4535 1.4560 1.4600

USD/JPY Current price: 113.10

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

Trying to regain 113.00. The USD/JPY pair remained capped below the 113.00 for most of this Friday, having advanced up to a daily high of 113.01 before retreating. The pair traded within yesterday's range, without much directional conviction. The US Retail Sales beating expectations however, helped the pair to advance to fresh daily highs near 113.20, albeit so far the advance seems quite limited. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the 100 SMA heads lower around 113.80 the immediate resistance, while the technical indicators accelerated their advances within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have corrected extreme oversold readings, but lost upward steam well below their mid-lines, suggesting there's little buying interest around this levels. Should the price continue advancing, and US stocks recover the ground lost earlier this week, the rally can extend up towards the 114.30 region during the American session.

Support levels: 112.60 112.10 111.70

Resistance levels: 113.35 113.80 114.30

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7093

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has traded lower in range for most of the day, dominated by dollar's positive tone, but lacking directional strength. US data was unable to affect the pair still ranging below the 0.7100 level, and with the 1 hour chart showing price hovering below a flat 20 SMA. In the same chart, the technical indicators hold within negative territory, but head nowhere, while in the 4 hours chart, the pair is also presenting a neutral stance, with the price a few pips above its 20 SMA and the technical indicators heading south above their mid-lines. A downward acceleration below 0.7070, a Fibonacci support, should favor a continued decline down to 0.6980,where the pair bounced several times during the last few days.

Support levels: 0.7070 0.7030 0.6980

Resistance levels: 0.7135 0.7170 0.7210

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