EUR/USD: holding gains around 1.1100


EUR/USD Current price: 1.1100

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The EUR/USD pair regained the 1.1100 figure this Monday, posting a daily high in the American afternoon of 1.1128. The dollar came under pressure at the beginning of the European session, as better-than-expected local data gave the EUR a boost. German business confidence improved more than expected in July, due to the easing concerns of a Grexit after the country reached an agreement with its European counterparts. Also, the EU money supply rose, to 11.8% in Jun from 11.2% in May. The figure that includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits, is a clear result of the ongoing QE, and points for higher inflation levels in the region. A softened greenback was unable to recover ground against its European rival, despite US Durable Goods Orders rose above expected in June, up 3.4%. The main supporter of EUR however, was the CHF as the EUR/CHF pair reached its highest in over 4 months on suspected SNB intervention. 

Technically the pair has broken above the roof of the daily descendant channel coming from 1.1435 by a handful of pips, opening doors for additional advances should the price accelerate again beyond the mentioned high. The 1 hour chart shows that the 20 SMA has advanced further below the current price, whilst the technical indicators are retreating from extreme oversold levels. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have lost their upward strength, but remain near overbought readings, far from signaling a downward move. At this point, only a break below 1.1050 will favor additional declines, back towards the 1.0960 region. 

Support levels: 1.1080 1.1050 1.1000 

Resistance levels: 1.1125 1.1160 1.1200

EUR/JPY Current Price: 136.74

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The EUR/JPY pair advanced to its highest in over a week, reaching 137.09 before retracing some. EUR demand has changed the picture for the pair, as the price advanced sharply above its 200 DMA for the first time in 2-weeks. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is well above its moving averages, with the 100 SMA accelerating above the 200 SMA below the current level, but the technical indicators already supporting a downward corrective move, as per being retracing from overbought territory. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator maintains a neutral stance around the 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator is retreating from overbought territory, giving little clues on what's next for the pair albeit higher highs in intraday charts maintain the risk towards the upside. The 100 SMA in the weekly chart around 137.80 has contained the upside ever since late may, which means only above the level an upward continuation will be confirmed.  

Support levels:  136.40 135.85 135.40

Resistance levels: 137.10 137.45 137.80

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5555

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The GBP/USD pair traded within Fibonacci levels this Monday, with the pair finding some intraday support from EUR advance early Europe. There were no fundamental releases in the UK, but this Tuesday, Britain will release its preliminary GDP figures for the second quarter of this 2015, expected at 0.7% against previous at 0.4% after a revision. The Pound can get a nice boost if the reading surprise expectations, particularly after regaining the 1.5500 level against the greenback. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price retreated from the 1.5590 region, the 23.6% retracement of its latest bullish run after finding buyers earlier in the day around the 50% retracement of the same rally. In the same chart, the technical indicators are slowly tuning higher in positive territory after correcting overbought readings, suggesting a limited bearish  potential. In the 4 hours chart, the price has advanced above its 20 SMA, converging with the 38.2% retracement of the same rally around 1.5545, now the immediate support, whilst the technical indicators maintain a neutral stance, hovering around their mid-lines. 
Support levels: 1.5545 1.5500 1.5460 
Resistance levels: 1.5590 1.5635 1.5675
USD/JPY Current price: 123.24View Live Chart for the USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen traded sharply higher against its American rival, with the USD/JPY slipping down to 123.00 before finally finding some demand. The strong slide in Asian share markets was behind the dollar's weakness that extended all through the day despite up beating US Durable Goods Orders. The pair however, has managed to bounce some, but remains contained below the 123.30 level, now the immediate resistance, with the 1 hour chart showing that the 100 SMA crossed below the 200 SMA well above the current price, and the technical indicators losing upward potential below their mid-lines, after correcting extreme oversold readings. In the 4 hours chart, the price is stuck around its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators have also recovered partially, but remain below their mid-lines, all of which maintains the risk towards the downside. The 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run stands at 122.90, with a break below it required to confirm a new leg south towards the 122.00 region.

Support levels: 122.90 122.40 122.00

Resistance levels: 123.30 123.70 124.20 

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7277

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The AUD/USD pair has erased all of its intraday gains and points for a flat close below the 0.7300 level, finding selling interest on an intraday advance up to 0.7324. Poor industrial profits data from China once again fuelled concerns over China’s economy slowdown resulting in Shanghai stocks plummeting nearly 8.5% today, and weighing on the Aussie. The short term tone is bearish, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head south below their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the intraday recovery was rejected by a bearish 20 SMA, currently around 0.7315, whilst the technical indicators maintain a weak tone well below their mid-lines, and particularly the RSI indicator heading lower around 37, supporting a new leg lower, particularly on a break below 0.7260, the multi-year low posted last week. 

Support levels: 0.7260 0.7225 0.7185

Resistance levels:  0.7315 0.7350 0.7390 

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