Traders and everyone will start taking positions for the year end and early January. It will be a technical trade. There is nothing much on the domestic scene expect the squabbling among Indian parliamentarians who prefer to enjoy Delhi winters instead of working for the nation and pass important legislations.
The European central bank is expected to announce more quantitative easing in January. Bank of Japan already wants a weaker Yen against the US dollar. Euro-US dollar can fall to 1.1975 and 1.1375 in case ECB announces more QE. The euro/usd fall to 1.1375 (if any) will create more downward price pressure rupee. European central bank meeting in January could be a big threat to rupee. Rest of the factors (apart from big gains in the US dollar) are more rupee positive than negative.
Technically Rupee has yet to break 64.15 against the US dollar. This implies that it can fall to 62.60 and 62.20 by next week in case it does not break 64.15 by next week. For now rupee will be affected by movement in Indian stock markets and direction of emerging market currencies against the US dollar. Key resistance is at 63.36 (all price in this paragraph is usd/inr – inter-bank).
There will be erratic price movement in the rupee till early January. Quarter end corporate window dressing is also affecting the rupee. One needs to trade very carefully in the next three weeks.
Usd/inr December 2014 (expiry on 29th December): It can fall to 62.96 and 62.62 as long as it trades over 63.36. There will be buyers only below 63.36.
Euro/inr December 2014 (expiry on 29th December): It can fall to 77.37 and 76.77 as long as it trades below 78.09. Only a break of 78.09 will result in intraday bullish zone.
Gbp/Inr December 2014 (expiry on 29th December): It needs to trade over 99.08 for 99.32-99.76. Initial support is at 98.76. There will be sellers only below 98.76 to 98.49 and 98.12.
Jpy/Inr December 2014 (expiry on 29th December): Yen/inr will be very volatile in the next three weeks. It needs to trade over 52.77 till next week future close to prevent another big sell off. Jobbers watch 53.02 and 53.33 all the time.
The European central bank is expected to announce more quantitative easing in January. Bank of Japan already wants a weaker Yen against the US dollar. Euro-US dollar can fall to 1.1975 and 1.1375 in case ECB announces more QE. The euro/usd fall to 1.1375 (if any) will create more downward price pressure rupee. European central bank meeting in January could be a big threat to rupee. Rest of the factors (apart from big gains in the US dollar) are more rupee positive than negative.
Technically Rupee has yet to break 64.15 against the US dollar. This implies that it can fall to 62.60 and 62.20 by next week in case it does not break 64.15 by next week. For now rupee will be affected by movement in Indian stock markets and direction of emerging market currencies against the US dollar. Key resistance is at 63.36 (all price in this paragraph is usd/inr – inter-bank).
There will be erratic price movement in the rupee till early January. Quarter end corporate window dressing is also affecting the rupee. One needs to trade very carefully in the next three weeks.
Usd/inr December 2014 (expiry on 29th December): It can fall to 62.96 and 62.62 as long as it trades over 63.36. There will be buyers only below 63.36.
Euro/inr December 2014 (expiry on 29th December): It can fall to 77.37 and 76.77 as long as it trades below 78.09. Only a break of 78.09 will result in intraday bullish zone.
Gbp/Inr December 2014 (expiry on 29th December): It needs to trade over 99.08 for 99.32-99.76. Initial support is at 98.76. There will be sellers only below 98.76 to 98.49 and 98.12.
Jpy/Inr December 2014 (expiry on 29th December): Yen/inr will be very volatile in the next three weeks. It needs to trade over 52.77 till next week future close to prevent another big sell off. Jobbers watch 53.02 and 53.33 all the time.
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