Lower energy prices and global economic risk (for next year) can result in a softer tone (on interest rates) by the Federal Reserve. In my view the Fed will not give an aggressive view on the direction of US interest rates. Euro/usd can see a temporary rise to 1.3025 and 1.3275 if the FOMC uses a softer tone on interest rates. There will be another wave of selling in euro/usd only if it trades below 1.2475 after the FOMC meet. The region between 1.2475 and 1.2775 is a long term neutral zone for euro/usd.
Once the Federal Reserve meet is over, we have the US senate elections next week and US October nonfarm payrolls apart from the European central bank meet. These events can have a big impact on the currency markets as well as the Indian Rupee. Rains in North west India caused due to cyclone Nilofar should be good for rabi crop as it will increase soil moisture. Limited rains will be reduce food price inflation in North India and North West India. The end result greater possibility of an interest rate cut by early next year.
Better to remain on the sidelines. There will be big moves by tomorrow. The recent consolidation phase in Rupee (usd/inr) will be broken soon and a new range will be formed.
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): This weeks 61.40-61.70 range will be broken soon and a new range will be formed.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Resistance is at 78.52 and only a break of 78.52 will result in further rise to 78.73 and 79.02. Initial support is at 78.12 and there will be sellers only below 78.12.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It can rise to 99.5225 and 99.8725 as long as it trades over 99.24. There will be sellers only if cable trades below 99.24 in UK session.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): 56.92 is the initial support with 56.68 as the key intraday support. Yen/inr needs to trade over 57.08 for further rise.
Once the Federal Reserve meet is over, we have the US senate elections next week and US October nonfarm payrolls apart from the European central bank meet. These events can have a big impact on the currency markets as well as the Indian Rupee. Rains in North west India caused due to cyclone Nilofar should be good for rabi crop as it will increase soil moisture. Limited rains will be reduce food price inflation in North India and North West India. The end result greater possibility of an interest rate cut by early next year.
Better to remain on the sidelines. There will be big moves by tomorrow. The recent consolidation phase in Rupee (usd/inr) will be broken soon and a new range will be formed.
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): This weeks 61.40-61.70 range will be broken soon and a new range will be formed.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Resistance is at 78.52 and only a break of 78.52 will result in further rise to 78.73 and 79.02. Initial support is at 78.12 and there will be sellers only below 78.12.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It can rise to 99.5225 and 99.8725 as long as it trades over 99.24. There will be sellers only if cable trades below 99.24 in UK session.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): 56.92 is the initial support with 56.68 as the key intraday support. Yen/inr needs to trade over 57.08 for further rise.
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