Future and options expiry in the currency markets as well as equity markets this week and a holiday on Friday (due to Ganesh Chaturthi) can increase intraday volatility. There is no major news so far to change the direction.
There are some section of the investment community which believes that global investors are investing in India due to Russian sanctions. Had Russia not been imposed all kinds of trade sanctions, Indian stock markets would not have risen so much and that the rupee would have been weaker by over two percent. Reversal of flows from stock markets either in September or early October can result in short term weakness for the rupee. US dollar repatriation by working Indians (and others) globally between the last week of September to end October will be very high due to the festival season. This can offset outflows (if any) by foreign institutional investors.
Usd/inr August 2014: Initial resistance is at 60.6925 and only a break of 60.6925 will result in further rise to 60.8025 and 60.98. Initial support is at 60.4975 with 60.3150 as the key support.
Euro/inr August 2014: Key support is at 79.7975 and there will be another wave of selling below 79.7975 to 79.3075 and 79.0150. Euro/inr needs to trade over 80.0725 for further rise.
Gbp/Inr August 2014: Key support is at 100.3975 and there will be sellers below 100.3975 to 100.2050 and 99.9150. Only a break of 100.9875 will resume the bullish trend.
Jpy/Inr August 2014: Key support is at 58.18. There will be a technical break down below 58.18 to 57.7725 and 57.33. There will be buyers only if jpy/inr trades over 58.4650.
There are some section of the investment community which believes that global investors are investing in India due to Russian sanctions. Had Russia not been imposed all kinds of trade sanctions, Indian stock markets would not have risen so much and that the rupee would have been weaker by over two percent. Reversal of flows from stock markets either in September or early October can result in short term weakness for the rupee. US dollar repatriation by working Indians (and others) globally between the last week of September to end October will be very high due to the festival season. This can offset outflows (if any) by foreign institutional investors.
Usd/inr August 2014: Initial resistance is at 60.6925 and only a break of 60.6925 will result in further rise to 60.8025 and 60.98. Initial support is at 60.4975 with 60.3150 as the key support.
Euro/inr August 2014: Key support is at 79.7975 and there will be another wave of selling below 79.7975 to 79.3075 and 79.0150. Euro/inr needs to trade over 80.0725 for further rise.
Gbp/Inr August 2014: Key support is at 100.3975 and there will be sellers below 100.3975 to 100.2050 and 99.9150. Only a break of 100.9875 will resume the bullish trend.
Jpy/Inr August 2014: Key support is at 58.18. There will be a technical break down below 58.18 to 57.7725 and 57.33. There will be buyers only if jpy/inr trades over 58.4650.
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