Rupee steady but sentiment on the downside


Sentiment continues to be positive for rupee. Pakistan prime minister coming today to India suggests that the prime minister designate means business. There is speculation that the Reserve bank of India will enhance limits for outflows by resident Indians. The general feeling in India is that the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) prefers a stronger rupee. The benefits of a stronger currency will be there in the form of more foreign inflows. The names of the cabinet ministers will have an effect the rupee and stock markets temporarily. 

The initial working of the new prime minister till the Union budget will be closely watched. The Reserve bank of India has to ensure that there is a gradual appreciation. Sharp appreciation will hurt exports. 

US markets are closed today.
Chart

Usd/inr May 2014:  100 week MA at 58.15 is the key support and there will be another wave of selling only below 58.15

Euro/inr May 2014: There will be another wave of selling below 79.43 to 79.20 and 78.30. Overall trend is bearish as long as euro/inr trades below 79.90

Gbp/Inr May 2014: It can fall to 97.75 and 97.28 as long as it trades below 99.10. Today there will be another wave of selling only below 98.30

Jpy/Inr May 2014: It can fall to 57.10 and 56.35 as long as it trades below 57.80.

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