The relationship between US Dollar and the Commodity complex

If the year closes on the current annual growth rates (+ 11%) for the Dollar Index, we will get the eighth case of increase in double figures since 1970. In 1992, 1997 and 2005, the following year recorded increases of 5% (1992) in the value of the greenback, while declines of 5% and 8% reached in 1997 and 2005. In the early 80s a special case occurred, when three years in double figures always higher than 10% followed to the +15% in 1981. Except in 2005, these movements were accompanied by a negative annual performance for commodities although only 1992 had a similar profile to the current one. In 1992, in fact, the commodities market reached a consecutive decline in prices for the fourth consecutive year, as now. The following year, the appreciation of the Dollar Index at 5% came with a simultaneous rise in commodity prices of 11%. A statistical survey that seems to be very interesting to note considering the large negativity that is pervading commodities at the moment.



As for EurUsd, on Friday, after the data on unemployment, the American market has completed the work of correction begun in May relying on the trend line that connects the lows of 2005, 2010 and 2012. Only the  50% of retracement of the entire the bull market (1.213) separates EURUSD from the next target of 1.12 (Charts source: Bloomberg).