Draghi effect on the Hungarian Forint


It seems that the market is not able to decide on EurHuf with the new test of the top of 317 culminated with a monthly bearish engulfing pattern figure followed by two months of decline. The trend line that has been rising from 2008 puts area 300 under pressure again, a very delicate level for the Forint.

HUF

Breaking down that threshold would make the investment in Hungarian currency very interesting, as it represents, along with the Russian ruble and the Polish zloty, the more present currency within the portfolios related to the world of emerging bonds in Eastern Europe.
There are two interesting elements. The next cyclical bottom (70 weeks) is scheduled for early May, while the 1-year rate of change (Roc) is still positive. Since the primary lows have always recorded a negative Roc lower than -5%, the final break of 300/303 would impose a long on the Hungarian Forint.

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