Commodity momentum: copper weakens - oil next?

The negative momentum seen in precious metals and the whole agriculture sector over the past week could now potentially also engulf copper. Being a growth dependent commodity, copper has, just like energy - minus natural gas -been well supported at the beginning of this year. But since February 4, we have seen lower highs almost every day. Yesterday resulted in a breach of support and today this weakness has continued. The drop was triggered by concerns about the strength of Chinese demand after local media reported that further initiatives to prevent property prices from rising too fast was being considered.

Crude oil prices are currently trading sideways, with support in WTI crude oil at 94.90 USD/barrel and resistance in Brent crude oil above 118 USD/barrel being the two levels the market is focusing on. The main driver, however, is gasoline which, at the moment, is the only commodity showing a double-digit return in 2013. This continued rally could become a concern for drivers in the US, who are paying record prices at the pump for this time of year. The current national average retail price for gasoline currently costs 3.73 USD/gallon, some 30 percent above the average for the past five years and only 9 percent away from the peak reached in July 2008 just before the collapse.

It goes to show that energy prices can not continue to rally without a sound foundation in terms of economic growth to back it up. We are once again facing the risk of an early beginning-of-the-year rally running out of steam and being followed by a correction. With WTI Crude potentially showing negative momentum from today and given the continued weakness in all other sectors, the risk of a correction in both crude oils is rising.