Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
When the market feels upbeat it envisages a meeting between Opec and non-Opec producers which results in a supply cutback and a sharp rally in prices. When it wakes up and finds it is all a dream, reality sets in and the fundamentals still show varying degrees of misery. The Venezuelan Oil Minister continues his tour of producing nations, one day Russia the next Qatar, after that he’s off to Iran and Saudi Arabia to try and gather support but it don’t come easy, as the song goes. When he gets to Iran for example he will have read the head of NIOC’s comments about March production targets which are an almost impossible 2.3m b/d up from 1.5m in January and 1.44m this month but still headed the wrong way.
There is a way out of all this but it will take more than a whistle-stop tour to fix it.
Add to that the inventory stats and one could get even more down in the dumps, last might the API reported a stock build of 3.8m barrels with Cushing adding 141/- and gasoline up by another 6.6m barrels. With mild weather forecast in the latest quarterly report there are few straws to clutch at.
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