Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
Another short blog today as there is precious little company news but one should report on the oil price taking another caning this morning. The -very- brief respite yesterday has been ended by the rumour that sanctions on Iran might be lifted sooner than expected. UN inspectors are reported to have watched as the Arak reactor is being made safe by the pouring of much cement into the core. Quite how much oil Iran could put onto the market is a moot point but at this stage it is really just adding fuel to the flames, if you get my drift. Apart from the stored crude, which might be as much as 50m barrels (half a days world usage), how much might they realistically bring on and when? I suspect that around 250/- b/d may be possible but the 1m b/d they claim could be a long time coming. Either way it is not good for the market and extends the time when Opec are in control again but that time will come, my figure of $300bn of capex cuts is now out of date, WoodMack have leapfrogged me by increasing their number from $200bn to $380bn. There are many people who havent realised that when these projects would be due to come onstream demand wont just have gone away….
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