Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
Last week oil prices fell again, WTI was down by $2.30 and Brent was off $2.14 only just keeping within trading ranges. With the NFP numbers being well higher than expected at 271/-, unemployment down to 5% and hourly earnings up 2.5% year on year, the greenback was only going one way, weakening the oil price.
The rig count, which showed an overall decline of 4 units and 6 in oil, was unlikely to impact such strength and at the weekend economic data from China also showed the different directions the biggest two economies in the world were headed. Crude oil imports in China in October were down 5.7% on September although this statistic is notoriously fickle and could easily reverse any time.
Other points to mention, in no particular order are as follows, the relentless supply of oil onto the market shows no sign of abating as confirmed, if any was needed, by the article on the front page of the FT about Saudi supplies. Interestingly the journalists on the story are tagged and include the paper’s Editor-in-Chief no less who is in Riyadh to help two other journos to write one small story… Elsewhere this week will see all three agencies produce their monthly reports and are unlikely to be anything but bearish although it was interesting to see speculative activity by hedgies and the like become more optimistic on Friday. Finally Barry vetoes the Keystone pipeline as expected on climate change grounds (not the 250bn miles a month that Americans drive then Baz?) as well as ruling out oil exports while he was about it.
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD stays weak near 1.2400 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD stays vulnerable near 1.2400 early Friday, sitting at five-month troughs. The UK Retail Sales data came in mixed and added to the weakness in the pair. Risk-aversion on the Middle East escalation keeps the pair on the back foot.
EUR/USD extends its downside below 1.0650 on hawkish Fed remarks
The EUR/USD extends its downside around 1.0640 after retreating from weekly peaks of 1.0690 on Friday. The hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials provide some support to the US Dollar.
Gold: Middle East war fears spark fresh XAU/USD rally, will it sustain?
Gold price is trading close to $2,400 early Friday, reversing from a fresh five-day high reached at $2,418 earlier in the Asian session. Despite the pullback, Gold price remains on track to book the fifth weekly gain in a row.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: All eyes on BTC as CNN calls halving the ‘World Cup for Bitcoin’
Bitcoin price remains the focus of traders and investors ahead of the halving, which is an important event expected to kick off the next bull market. Amid conflicting forecasts from analysts, an international media site has lauded the halving and what it means for the industry.
Israel vs. Iran: Fear of escalation grips risk markets
Recent reports of an Israeli aerial bombardment targeting a key nuclear facility in central Isfahan have sparked a significant shift out of risk assets and into safe-haven investments.