Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
Crude had a slightly weaker day yesterday as rumours inevitably swirled around the market place very much as expected. Also as expected, the talks between Iran and the P5+1 couldnt come to an agreement and will resume at the end of June 2015. At least that means that Iran dont have the wherewithal to significantly increase oil production until 2H 2015 at the earliest, the straws we cling to eh?
Now, as to those rumours I was talking about. The first was that in the event of any agreement to cut production at the Opec meeting, three countries would be exempt from such curbs and they are allegedly Iraq, Iran and Libya. The effect of this would be that cuts to the other member would be disproportionate as these three countries account for around 14% of Opec output. The second story doing the rounds was that Russia had offered to cut production by 300/- b/d which is around 3% of its production, by my calculations this would help an Opec cut in a small way but as they say, every little helps. I will be talking about Opec to IG Group this morning at around midday if you would like to tune in.
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