KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Headlines
Weak Polish retail sales prompt rate cut speculations
Escalation of Ukrainian crisis might weigh on CEE region
CEE currencies faced up to pressure yesterday; suffered losses however were not grave. The Hungarian forint slipped by 0.2 % due to profit-taking following a surge to the four-week high reached after the NBH had announced the end of the monetary easing cycle. Also the Czech koruna remains table, despite slight weakening due to fresh signals that the exit from the FX intervention regime will come later than expected. In Poland, the statistical office published retail sales data on Wednesday, which were considerably worse than expected and prompted speculations that NBP would be forced to cut rates. Although two central bankers – Marek Belka and Andrzej Kazmierczak – denied a need to change the base rate, the zloty eased and bond yields dropped.
Today’s regional calendar is empty; hence markets´ attention will be paid to events elsewhere in the world. A fresh Ifo business climate index was published in Germany this morning, which surprisingly lagged behind both ours and markets´ expectations. The news might negatively affect CEE countries since Germany ranks among their most important trading partners. In addition, the Ukrainian crisis might also weigh on the region. History has shown us that the zloty as well as the forint are sensitive to rising tension in Ukraine and yesterday’s resignation of the Prime minister Arsenij Jaceňuk together with louder calls for stronger sanctions against Russia will certainly not contribute to positive sentiment in the Central European region.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD pressures as Fed officials hold firm on rate policy
The Australian Dollar is on the defensive against the US Dollar, as Friday’s Asian session commences. On Thursday, the antipodean clocked losses of 0.21% against its counterpart, driven by Fed officials emphasizing they’re in no rush to ease policy. The AUD/USD trades around 0.6419.
EUR/USD extends its downside below 1.0650 on hawkish Fed remarks
The EUR/USD extends its downside around 1.0640 after retreating from weekly peaks of 1.0690 on Friday during the early Asian session. The hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials provide some support to the US Dollar.
Gold price edges higher on risk-off mood hawkish Fed signals
Gold prices advanced late in the North American session on Thursday, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risks involving Iran and Israel. Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish messages, triggering a jump in US Treasury yields, which boosted the Greenback.
Runes likely to have massive support after BRC-20 and Ordinals frenzy
With all eyes peeled on the halving, Bitcoin is the center of attention in the market. The pioneer cryptocurrency has had three narratives this year already, starting with the spot BTC exchange-traded funds, the recent all-time high of $73,777, and now the halving.
Billowing clouds of apprehension
Thursday marked the fifth consecutive session of decline for US stocks as optimism regarding multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve waned. The downturn in sentiment can be attributed to robust economic data releases, prompting traders to adjust their expectations for multiple rate cuts this year.