KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Headlines
Ukraine army ousts rebels from airbase
Polish inflation remains at 0.7 %
Although some kind of armed intervention against separatist militias in East Ukraine could be expected, fears of further conflict escalation and uncertainty surrounding Russia’s true stance triggered further sell-off in Hungarian and Polish markets. While the koruna barely moved, the zloty fell by about 0.2 % and the forint lost more than 0.5% vs. the euro. Also Hungarian stocks underperformed its peers. Unlike in major European countries, prices of Hungarian government bonds fell and the 10Y yield rose by 3 bps yesterday (or by 13 bps since last Tuesday). Still, we expect the Hungarian central bank to cut its key interest rate to 2.50 % unless the forint returns above EUR/HUF 315 in the next two weeks (the MNB meeting is scheduled for 29th April).
Meanwhile, the Polish statistical office released fresh inflation data (+0.7 % Y/Y in March), which were broadly consistent with general expectations. Regarding structure of the price growth, a small month-on-month decline in prices of food and non alcoholic beverages brought us the biggest surprise. It was for the first time since 2006 that prices in this category dropped in March on the monthly basis. All in all, Polish inflation, still deep below its target value, confirms that the NBP is in no hurry regarding future interest rates hikes, despite the fact that economic growth in the country has been picking up.
Although some interesting regional figures were released today – for example Czech PPI for March fell short of market expectations and indicated low inflation pressures to persist in coming months – the situation in Ukraine remains the eyecatcher. Yesterday’s trading supported our view that the forint is the most vulnerable among CE currencies (despite improving fundamentals of the Hungarian economy).
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD pressures as Fed officials hold firm on rate policy
The Australian Dollar is on the defensive against the US Dollar, as Friday’s Asian session commences. On Thursday, the antipodean clocked losses of 0.21% against its counterpart, driven by Fed officials emphasizing they’re in no rush to ease policy. The AUD/USD trades around 0.6419.
EUR/USD extends its downside below 1.0650 on hawkish Fed remarks
The EUR/USD extends its downside around 1.0640 after retreating from weekly peaks of 1.0690 on Friday during the early Asian session. The hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials provide some support to the US Dollar.
Gold price edges higher on risk-off mood hawkish Fed signals
Gold prices advanced late in the North American session on Thursday, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risks involving Iran and Israel. Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish messages, triggering a jump in US Treasury yields, which boosted the Greenback.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: All eyes on BTC as CNN calls halving the ‘World Cup for Bitcoin’
Bitcoin price remains the focus of traders and investors ahead of the halving, which is an important event expected to kick off the next bull market. Amid conflicting forecasts from analysts, an international media site has lauded the halving and what it means for the industry.
Is the Biden administration trying to destroy the Dollar?
Confidence in Western financial markets has already been shaken enough by the 20% devaluation of the dollar over the last few years. But now the European Commission wants to hand Ukraine $300 billion seized from Russia.