The Dow just keeps plugging higher but all good things must eventually end so let’s review the daily chart to see where the good times are likely to end.

DOW DAILY CHART

Dow

The Fibonacci fan show the move higher over the last couple of months has generally been contained within the 61.8% and 76.4% angles. It is only recently that price has started to drift away from the 61.8% angle indicating some weariness creeping into to the uptrend. Nevertheless, price to continues to climb the wall of worry.

So, where is this uptrend likely to terminate?

The horizontal line denotes the November 2015 high at 17977 and I believe price is set to make a false break top just above that level.

The low in January 2015 was a higher low and should price trade above the November 2015 high then it will be followed by a higher high. After that I expect a bold move back down that eventually sets up another higher low. As outlined in previous analysis, I am targeting around the 15700 level for that higher low.

The Bollinger Bands show price having one last lash at the upper band which should see price push further into this band before a reversal back down takes place.

The RSI looks likely to set up a triple bearish divergence on this next high. That often leads to a significant move down and that is certainly my expectation.

The MACD is currently marginally bullish but should set up a bearish divergence on the coming high.

So, a high appears imminent but, as far as I’m concerned, this is not the beginning of the next leg down in a big bear market. However, by the time the next higher low forms it will certainly feel like it.


 

The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. Put simply, it is JUST MY OPINION.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE

EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE

EUR/USD continues its downward trend for the fourth consecutive day, driven by a stronger US Dollar influenced by the hawkish market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD: The first downside target is seen at the 1.2600–1.2605 zone

GBP/USD: The first downside target is seen at the 1.2600–1.2605 zone

GBP/USD trades on a weaker note around 1.2620 during the early European session on Friday. The decline of Pound Sterling is backed by the growing speculation that the Bank of England will begin the rate-cut cycle this year.

GBP/USD News

Gold ends Q1 2024 at record highs, what’s next?

Gold ends Q1 2024 at record highs, what’s next?

Gold is sitting at an all-time high of $2,236, lacking a trading impetus amid holiday-thinned conditions on Good Friday. Most major world markets, including the United States are closed in observance of Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued.

Gold News

Ripple's move above this key level could trigger nearly 50% rally for XRP

Ripple's move above this key level could trigger nearly 50% rally for XRP

Ripple price has overcome a critical resistance level and flipped into a support floor on the weekly time frame. This development happened while XRP tightly consolidated for roughly 250 days.

Read more

US core PCE inflation set to ease in February on month as Federal Reserve rate cut bets for June mount

US core PCE inflation set to ease in February on month as Federal Reserve rate cut bets for June mount

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is set to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in February. The revised Summary of Projections showed that policymakers upwardly revised end-2024 core PCE forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures