More Yens, Euros, Renminbis and Dollars!

Wow! Take a couple of days off and what happens? Stocks go into overdrive - driven higher once again by the promise of more stimulus - China cut rates - for the first time in two years...and the ECB promised MORE stimulus....US futures were +1% in early pre-mkt trading on Friday - causing them to move higher once the opening bell rang at 9:30 only to back off as the day progressed.

Evidence that investors love increased monetary stimulus could also be seen in global mkts. The Nikkei 225 and the Hong Kong- Hang Seng Index rose by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, while China's Index surged by 1.4%. In Europe - those mkts loved the Draghi comments and moved decisively higher as well. The FTSE +1.1%, the German DAX and the French CAC 40 rallied by 2.6% and 2.7% respectively.

This powerful show of force by the PBoC & the ECB will continue to be a positive for the stocks and has already ushered in the traditional ‘Santa Claus rally’. And this morning - it is a sea of GREEN as investors continue to celebrate the idea of easy money.

This morning - we continue to see global mkts on a tear. US futures are up another 4 pts trading at 2066 in pre-mkt trading. Asian mkts continue to lead the way - Japan + 0.18%, Hong Kong + 1.95%, China + 1.85% and ASX +1.08%. In Europe - mkts are higher on the back of some positive German macro data. German IFO index rising to 104.7 vs. consensus of 103. FTSE +0.02%, CAC 40 +0.88%, DAX +0.75%, EUROSTOXX + 0.98%, SPAIN +1.3% and ITALY +0.66%.

Risks? Are there any at all? While the larger indexes (think Dow and S&P 500) are bumping out new highs in overbought territory - it makes some sense to be aware of the risk that technically exists among the “non-blue-chip” stocks

The small cap stocks (think Russell 2000) are closer to breaking out to new highs BUT they are in a downtrend channel of lower highs and lower lows with prices back near the top of this down trending channel (1192) – as small caps begin to rollover near the top of the channel, it only confirms resistance at this level...

Now Mid-Caps? They are near the top of the price channel and look like they have created a triple top - July 2014, Sept 2014 and now November 2014. A bull can say that the resistance was broken on Friday as the MDY ETF - which tracks the performance of the S&P Midcap 400 index in fact busted out and looks ready to join the big boys - the S&P 500 and the Dow. But are these all of these indexes a bit overdone? Once again - central banks have forced the trade (manipulated) by keeping rates at artificially low levels - so caution remains key.

In my opinion, small caps could once again be telling the story of caution ahead. On the other hand, with Thanksgiving and Christmas only days and weeks ahead - the focus will turn to a strong finish for the year - as the bulls celebrate more monetary action causing the fundamentals to once again become disconnected from the economics.

Two broad global events really stealing the spotlight this week -

1. Iranian nuclear talks - are making headway but did fail to reach an agreement causing them to extend the talks into December - although a slight negative - it was widely publicized so mkts are NOT caught off guard.

2. OPEC - Now they are meeting in Vienna on Thursday - when US mkts are closed - but investors will be watching to see what the outcome is....will they CUT production to stop the bleed? (Oil is currently off 30 cts at $76.22) Saudi Arabia is in the driver's seat here and has said that they are comfortable with current production levels - but Iran is putting pressure on the group to cut production. Keep your eyes peeled.

On the US macro front - considering it is a shortened week - there is plenty of broad macro data to digest. Today we get Chicago Fed Survey -exp of 0.4, Markit Services PMI of 57.3, and the Dallas Fed Survey of 9.
Tomorrow - we get 1 revision to 3rd qtr GDP - exp of 3.3% (down from orig 3.5%), Pers consumption of 1.9%, Case Shiller Housing Price index, Consumer Confidence of 96, Richmond Fed Survey - exp of 15, Durable goods of -0.7%, Pers Income of +0.4%, Pers Spending of +0.3%, Pending Home Sales, New Home Sales and ISM Milwaukee of 63.5.

Roast Turkey

With the holiday upon us - it is time to prepare the turkey. For this you need:

The Turkey, carrots, celery, onions, butter, s&p, an apple and orange, minced garlic, sage, rosemary and thyme, chicken broth, and a splash of champagne.

Begin by rinsing and draining the "defrosted turkey" - never cook a frozen turkey. Be sure to take your turkey out of the freezer on Tuesday morning and let it sit in the fridge to defrost. By Wednesday night you should be good to go…. Make sure to remove the bag with the giblets and neck from the cavity. Rinse it out and let it dry - or pat it down with paper towels. Now on Wednesday night you want to prepare it to allow it to marinate.
Mix all of your seasonings together set aside.

Place the turkey in a roasting pan.

Next - take some softened butter and massage the turkey - breast, legs and thighs. Now - rub the seasonings into the turkey making sure to season all parts. Cover with foil and place back in the fridge.
Thursday morning:

Cut up the apple and the orange into slices and place in the cavity. Rough chop the veggies and place all around the turkey and also in the cavity. Add the chicken broth and a splash of your favorite champagne - don't ask why - its champagne - Just enjoy.
Preheat oven to 400 degrees.

Tent the turkey with foil and place in the middle rack and let roast for 30 mins or so....now reduce heat to 325 degrees and let it cook - 12 - 15 mins per pound. So figure it out....15 lbs = 180 mins/ 225 mins. (3/ 3 ¾ hrs).

Now - remove the foil and allow it to crisp up and turn golden brown. Once done - remove from oven and let it rest for 15 mins. Keep it covered to maintain the warmth.

Serve with all of the usual fixings. Stuffing, Mashed Potatoes, Peas/mushrooms, Asparagus, Brussel Sprouts, Cranberry Sauce, Sweet Potato Pie and stuffed Italian Cubanelle Peppers.


Buon Appetito.