Good morning America! What another day yesterday….mkts got slammed in the pre-mkt and then during the early morning trade only to find support at the 1964 level – like it has done for the past 3 trading sessions - then it churned a bit only to move higher. Even though the mkt did end the day in negative territory it was a far cry from the weaker early levels seen in the morning. So what was it yesterday?
Well, first it was a re-test of the recent lows - 1965 ish... Mkt was not convinced that the Friday snap back rally was real – and so after the weak China macro data and the civil unrest in Hong Kong on Sunday night, and the weak European data Monday morning - traders thought it might just be time to take some more chips off the table while portfolio managers and longer term asset managers jumped in once again to go bargain hunting - especially as we close out the 3rd qtr.
Once convinced that there was support it churned, tested and then proceeded to rally once again as the day wore on closing just above the 50 dma at 1975….this is very interesting – as the mkt keeps trading just north and south of this key level – Yesterday we managed to cross it 6 times - unable to break much lower but also unable to push higher. Month end and quarter end window dressing holding it tight as it appears as if the big boys want to close out the qtr above this important psychological level. So the real test is what happens on Wednesday, Oct 1st – the start of the 4th qtr 2014 as investors await the start of 3rd qtr earnings…..
Speaking of earnings - Ford Motor is the first to come to the confessional at their investor day presentation - a good 3 1/2 weeks before they actually announce .....and as usual they gave everyone - both long term and short term investors/traders something to chew on....
First the stock got pummeled - down some 8% - so clearly the short sellers got rewarded as Mark Fields - President and CEO of Ford Motor Company announced that they were cutting the earnings outlook and full year profit guidance due to slowing sales in emerging mkts, increased costs due to recalls and a weak European economy. These 3 factors would cause them to cut full year pretax profits by $1.5 billion. For the longer term investor he told them that the 'outlook was not entirely gloomy' as outlined the targets through the end of the decade - so 6 yrs out (2020)....he is estimating that the Lincoln brand will produce double digit margins, North America will continue to be the driver, China is BOOMING and global growth prospects are still intact.........Ok - I'll leave it there - you can decide what's next......
Should we expect to hear more of these stories in the next few weeks - Emerging mkts and Europe along with the impact of a stronger dollar?
Speaking of the US dollar – now that has been a performer of late - have you seen the chart? This thing has shot up from the June lows of 79.80 to end the day yesterday at 86.07 or an 8% move. This is now beginning to change the landscape. The dollar will most likely continue to rise in the months ahead and this will be an issue for the Fed. Do they want a strong dollar right now? Is it justified vs. what the economy is telling us? Will we be hearing more about the strong dollar in the coming earnings season? The problem the Fed has now is that Europe and Japan ,( and China to a certain extent) , are all trying to force their currencies lower as weaker currencies will make those countries more competitive - this being the central argument for the ECB’s latest move – just as it was here in the states when Uncle Benny launched QE1 (2009), QE2 (2010), QE3 (2011), and QE Infinity (2012).
Is the S&P raising the warning flag? It’s not just the Russell or Nasdaq that are signaling “risk off”. The broader S&P 500 has been showing some signs of short term stress as it struggles to keep its head above its 50-dma. There is only one trading session left in the qtr....today!. And even if they manage to close the S&P 500 above 1975 it may only be for a few days before we see another leg down.
A stronger leg down could be led by nervousness over earnings, the coming midterm elections, and the growing concern over a weakening Europe. In fact a new report released yesterday revealed that Eurozone economic confidence sunk to a 10 month low as consumers and retailers appear to be exhausted. Unlike our 'robust GDP growth of 4.6% in the 2nd qtr - the Eurozone stands in stark contrast with annual GDP running at 0.5%. Mark Fields reminded us of that yesterday - how many other CEO's will do the same? What happens if Russia tightens the valves on natural gas flows to Europe this winter?
The next six weeks are sure to interesting....between earnings, politics and the Hank Greenberg AIG trial - Starr Companies VS. the US Gov't - there will be plenty to talk about....so watch closely and place your bets accordingly.
US futures are +5 pts in early trade...once again trying to push higher into the end of qtr. Today we get ISM Milwaukee, Case Shiller Home Price Index and Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. The only Fed speaker will be Jerome Powell - member of the board of governors -. From a technical perspective - look for the continued test to remain above 1975 - with new resistance at 1985 ish and support back at 1965 ish.
Overnight in Asia – mkt were cautious as investors weight the unfolding developments in Hong Kong. The protests are spreading and they are not backing down. No one wants another Tiananmen Square - so it is a wait and see game. Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -1.28%, China +0.26% and ASX +0.54%.
In Europe – mkts are higher as investors/traders focus on the macro and push the geo-political concerns to the back burner. Thursday is the ECB announcement and traders waiting to hear what they will say this time. FTSE FLAT, CAC 40 +1%, DAX +0.5%, EUROSTOXX +0.9%, SPAIN +0.8% and ITALY +0.9%.
On a final note - the Headstrong Project rang the Opening Bell here at the NYSE yesterday...and tomorrow they are hosting their "Words of War" fundraising event at Tribeca 360. As a member of the host committee - I'd be honored for you to join us at Tribeca 360 in New York City on October 1st, 2014 to help us raise funds for this vital cause. The program will feature special performances by Jake Gyllenhaal, Anthony Edwards, David Strathairn, Lili Taylor and yours truly. Doors open at 6 for cocktails, dinner and performance start at 7.
Please follow the link - http://bit.ly/HPwow to learn more about the event and how to support and/or purchase tickets.
You will need: Chicken Broth, Arborio rice, Butternut squash, 1 1/2 cups of pumpkin puree (not the pie filling that you buy in the store - you need real pumpkin puree), large diced onion, chopped fresh basil, plenty of fresh grated Parmegaina Cheese, olive oil - and the kicker - 3 tblspn of Mascarpone Cheese. - (Mascarpone is a soft white cream cheese from the Lombardy region of Southern Italy. It is the result of the culture being added to the cream skimmed off the milk used in the production of Parmegiana. It has the consistency of soft cream cheese and is used in a variety of Italian dishes including deserts)
Preheat the oven to 400 degrees.
In a baking dish - combine the rice, cut up butternut squash, the pumpkin puree, diced onion and the chicken broth. Season it with a bit of s&p and mix well. Cover it tightly with a lid or with tin foil and place in the middle rack in the oven. Re-visit it in 10 mins intervals and stir. It will be done when most of the broth has been absorbed and the rice is not longer hard. This should not cook any longer than 40 mins max.
Remove from the oven and add - the Parmegiana, the Mascarpone and the chopped basil - mix well (but do not smash the butternut squash) and serve immediately in warmed bowls.
Buon Appetito.
Well, first it was a re-test of the recent lows - 1965 ish... Mkt was not convinced that the Friday snap back rally was real – and so after the weak China macro data and the civil unrest in Hong Kong on Sunday night, and the weak European data Monday morning - traders thought it might just be time to take some more chips off the table while portfolio managers and longer term asset managers jumped in once again to go bargain hunting - especially as we close out the 3rd qtr.
Once convinced that there was support it churned, tested and then proceeded to rally once again as the day wore on closing just above the 50 dma at 1975….this is very interesting – as the mkt keeps trading just north and south of this key level – Yesterday we managed to cross it 6 times - unable to break much lower but also unable to push higher. Month end and quarter end window dressing holding it tight as it appears as if the big boys want to close out the qtr above this important psychological level. So the real test is what happens on Wednesday, Oct 1st – the start of the 4th qtr 2014 as investors await the start of 3rd qtr earnings…..
Speaking of earnings - Ford Motor is the first to come to the confessional at their investor day presentation - a good 3 1/2 weeks before they actually announce .....and as usual they gave everyone - both long term and short term investors/traders something to chew on....
First the stock got pummeled - down some 8% - so clearly the short sellers got rewarded as Mark Fields - President and CEO of Ford Motor Company announced that they were cutting the earnings outlook and full year profit guidance due to slowing sales in emerging mkts, increased costs due to recalls and a weak European economy. These 3 factors would cause them to cut full year pretax profits by $1.5 billion. For the longer term investor he told them that the 'outlook was not entirely gloomy' as outlined the targets through the end of the decade - so 6 yrs out (2020)....he is estimating that the Lincoln brand will produce double digit margins, North America will continue to be the driver, China is BOOMING and global growth prospects are still intact.........Ok - I'll leave it there - you can decide what's next......
Should we expect to hear more of these stories in the next few weeks - Emerging mkts and Europe along with the impact of a stronger dollar?
Speaking of the US dollar – now that has been a performer of late - have you seen the chart? This thing has shot up from the June lows of 79.80 to end the day yesterday at 86.07 or an 8% move. This is now beginning to change the landscape. The dollar will most likely continue to rise in the months ahead and this will be an issue for the Fed. Do they want a strong dollar right now? Is it justified vs. what the economy is telling us? Will we be hearing more about the strong dollar in the coming earnings season? The problem the Fed has now is that Europe and Japan ,( and China to a certain extent) , are all trying to force their currencies lower as weaker currencies will make those countries more competitive - this being the central argument for the ECB’s latest move – just as it was here in the states when Uncle Benny launched QE1 (2009), QE2 (2010), QE3 (2011), and QE Infinity (2012).
Is the S&P raising the warning flag? It’s not just the Russell or Nasdaq that are signaling “risk off”. The broader S&P 500 has been showing some signs of short term stress as it struggles to keep its head above its 50-dma. There is only one trading session left in the qtr....today!. And even if they manage to close the S&P 500 above 1975 it may only be for a few days before we see another leg down.
A stronger leg down could be led by nervousness over earnings, the coming midterm elections, and the growing concern over a weakening Europe. In fact a new report released yesterday revealed that Eurozone economic confidence sunk to a 10 month low as consumers and retailers appear to be exhausted. Unlike our 'robust GDP growth of 4.6% in the 2nd qtr - the Eurozone stands in stark contrast with annual GDP running at 0.5%. Mark Fields reminded us of that yesterday - how many other CEO's will do the same? What happens if Russia tightens the valves on natural gas flows to Europe this winter?
The next six weeks are sure to interesting....between earnings, politics and the Hank Greenberg AIG trial - Starr Companies VS. the US Gov't - there will be plenty to talk about....so watch closely and place your bets accordingly.
US futures are +5 pts in early trade...once again trying to push higher into the end of qtr. Today we get ISM Milwaukee, Case Shiller Home Price Index and Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. The only Fed speaker will be Jerome Powell - member of the board of governors -. From a technical perspective - look for the continued test to remain above 1975 - with new resistance at 1985 ish and support back at 1965 ish.
Overnight in Asia – mkt were cautious as investors weight the unfolding developments in Hong Kong. The protests are spreading and they are not backing down. No one wants another Tiananmen Square - so it is a wait and see game. Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -1.28%, China +0.26% and ASX +0.54%.
In Europe – mkts are higher as investors/traders focus on the macro and push the geo-political concerns to the back burner. Thursday is the ECB announcement and traders waiting to hear what they will say this time. FTSE FLAT, CAC 40 +1%, DAX +0.5%, EUROSTOXX +0.9%, SPAIN +0.8% and ITALY +0.9%.
On a final note - the Headstrong Project rang the Opening Bell here at the NYSE yesterday...and tomorrow they are hosting their "Words of War" fundraising event at Tribeca 360. As a member of the host committee - I'd be honored for you to join us at Tribeca 360 in New York City on October 1st, 2014 to help us raise funds for this vital cause. The program will feature special performances by Jake Gyllenhaal, Anthony Edwards, David Strathairn, Lili Taylor and yours truly. Doors open at 6 for cocktails, dinner and performance start at 7.
Please follow the link - http://bit.ly/HPwow to learn more about the event and how to support and/or purchase tickets.
Pumpkin/Butternut Squash Risotto
It is that time of year....you see the pumpkins all around.....it is fall, the air is brisk and this weekend you need to try this great hearty dish. Easy to make because you BAKE this one and it is delicious to eat......You will need: Chicken Broth, Arborio rice, Butternut squash, 1 1/2 cups of pumpkin puree (not the pie filling that you buy in the store - you need real pumpkin puree), large diced onion, chopped fresh basil, plenty of fresh grated Parmegaina Cheese, olive oil - and the kicker - 3 tblspn of Mascarpone Cheese. - (Mascarpone is a soft white cream cheese from the Lombardy region of Southern Italy. It is the result of the culture being added to the cream skimmed off the milk used in the production of Parmegiana. It has the consistency of soft cream cheese and is used in a variety of Italian dishes including deserts)
Preheat the oven to 400 degrees.
In a baking dish - combine the rice, cut up butternut squash, the pumpkin puree, diced onion and the chicken broth. Season it with a bit of s&p and mix well. Cover it tightly with a lid or with tin foil and place in the middle rack in the oven. Re-visit it in 10 mins intervals and stir. It will be done when most of the broth has been absorbed and the rice is not longer hard. This should not cook any longer than 40 mins max.
Remove from the oven and add - the Parmegiana, the Mascarpone and the chopped basil - mix well (but do not smash the butternut squash) and serve immediately in warmed bowls.
Buon Appetito.
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