Candle Stick Pattern?

Stocks on the whole did very little – but a look at some individual names reveals a much different story. Face book – surges to a new record high after handily beating the estimates, Ford Motor also enjoying the benefits of ‘better than expected’ results. Caterpillar, and GM on the other hand – not so much… CAT did beat the estimate, but missed on the top line revenue line, while GM missed on the estimate…– traders punished both of them.

This morning US futures are a bit lower - down 4 pts at 6:30 am trading at 1976. After the bell last night Amazon - disappointed - reporting a loss of some $126 mil vs. exp of a loss of $66 mil..... that stock is trading down 10% in pre-mkt trading this morning.

Also in the news - Visa - trading down 4% in European trading as they told investors that revenue is only expected to grow 9% vs. the 10% expectation.... and Gilead Sciences....reported great numbers yes...but had little reaction....remember that the whisper number for sales at Gilead was as high as $4 bil....(very high exp)....and in the days leading up to yesterday's release the stock had already reacted....so the news caused some selling pressure as it teases with new highs. The action yesterday should not be taken as a negative - Overall their outlook appears bright.

Yesterday we also learned a couple of other things

1. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) cut their global growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.4% - due to the 1Q weakness in the US along with some signs of slowing emerging markets…again they are backwards looking – that slow growth is old news – the mkt says – “Tell me something I don’t know already”…and thus no real reaction at all as traders/investors are choosing to focus on the positives…And that positive is a stronger 2H of 2014 for the US. Take note – the IMF did NOT cut their 2015 forecast of 4% growth – so the mkt had zero reason to get its ‘panties in a bunch’.

2. Housing! New homes disappointed.....in fact collapsed - 8.1%. So how does this compare to the better than exp Existing Home Sales numbers? Well - think about it...New Home prices are up some 17% from two years ago and are 22% more than the price of an 'existing home'.....and as we are only producing 'part time jobs' vs. real full time jobs - there seems to be a bit of a disconnect....Home builders get smoked yesterday.... TOL - 3%, DHI - 11%, KBH - 3%, PHM-3%, LEN -3%....And this is the strongest part of the selling season...... I'm just sayin....

OK - no matter - I think the stars are aligning….and investors will see a strong second half finish into the end of the year here at home and just a note - I don’t think that the emerging mkts will be the death knell for this rally... Rising interest rates and rising inflation will be the ‘killer’ – but ytd – neither one has raised its ugly head. At some point though (and how many times have we said this?) mkts will become ‘irrationally exuberant’ and when we least expect it – BOOM!

Now look – most of the time – the mkt is not rational – it is always affected by human emotion – which is why there are always buyers and sellers – someone thinks it’s a screaming BUY, while someone else can’t wait to hit the SELL button. So is there a right and wrong? Well I guess that depends on how you Buy 'em and Sell 'em.

US Futures as noted above are off a bit....currently down 4 pts....look- the early buying yesterday got snuffed out...as both buyers and sellers struggled to take control....when this does not happen - we get a spinning top candlestick pattern - indicating neither side had the upper hand. This kind of pattern is usually seen when the mkt is fighting for direction and in this case might be signaling a short term top....so do not be surprised to see more churn as traders/investors remain patient.

Overnight In Asia –markets were generally higher following the muted US action - Japanese stocks brushing off figures showing a fall in inflation and with the geo-political situation calming down - traders/investors took the region higher going into the weekend. Essentially focusing on the better earnings and improving macro data as they closed out the week. Japan + 1.13%, Hong Kong +0.3%, China +1% and ASX -0.08%

In Europe – mkts are mixed.....not taking their lead from Asia - instead focusing on the disappointing earnings results and a bit of weakening in European macro data..... German IFO data fell to 108 vs exp of 109.7. Analysts screaming that the Russian sanctions are hurting the German economy. In the UK though 2Q GDP at 0.8% is now better than it was in 2008! Traders/Investors just taking a bit of money off the table ahead of the weekend and after many of these mkts have enjoyed a surge upwards. It is never wrong to ring the cash register.... FTSE -0.1%, CAC 40 - 0.67%, DAX -0.48%, EUROSTOXX -0.4%, SPAIN +0.4% and Italy -0.17%.

On a side note - I am proud to say that my wife and I are members of the Host Committee for The Headstrong Project - a philanthropic organization that treats returning Veterans from Iraq/Afghanistan that suffer from PTSD. Please follow the link below for more information regarding our October 1 event. If you are in NYC - it is a "not to miss" evening.

PTSD is real + is killing 22 veterans a day. Be the change 10/1 in NYC w. @getheadstrongg #JakeGyllenhaal http://bmst.co/wowbenefit2014

Mostaccioli Calabrian Style

Soppresata (pronounced: so – pre – satt- a) – otherwise known in Southern Italy as “Salsiccia Calabrese” – is the key to this dish. Now let’s visit Calabria. So where is it? It is in Southern Italy – in the “toe” of the boot….in antiquity it was known as Bruttium. Calabria is connected to the Monte Pollino massif to the north and the Ionian & Tyrrhenian seas on the east, south and west coasts.

So what is the Monte Pollino massif? Monte – means mountain – so they are the Pollino mountains in the southern Apennines mountain range. A massif is a section of the Earth that is marked by faults and flexures and represents the mass of the mountain. (very interesting – no?) The capital of Calabria is Cantanzaro but the most populated city is Reggio. The region is a long and narrow peninsula and goes from north to south for 154 miles while being 68 miles wide. 42% of the region is mountainous, 49% is hilly while the remaining 9% is flat plain like land. The climate is influenced by the land….colder in the Monte Pollino region, temperate in the middle, humid on the Tyrrhenian coast and much drier on the Ionian coast. Now onto the dish -

For this dish you need only a couple of things….
You should use a short pasta with this dish… so go for the mostaccioli. One soppresatta, garlic, olive oil, 1 tbslp of tomato puree and chopped Italian parsley.
Bring a pot of salted water to a rolling boil – add the pasta (your choice).

First you need to remove the skin from the soppresatta and then slice thin. Set aside.

Now – in a large deep sauté pan – add the olive oil and heat on med low. Now add in the sliced garlic and sauté until it becomes golden brown…now remove. Turn heat to low and add in the sliced soppresatta. Cook for like 5 mins or so….Now add the tomato puree – stir to melt the puree into the oil and soppresatta. Once ready….toss in the chopped parsley – stir and remove from the heat.

Taste and strain the pasta after like 8 mins or so….always reserving a mugful of water. Now – turn the heat back on low – pour the pasta directly into the pan and mix well. If you need to add a little moisture – then pour in a bit of the pasta water. IF not – then don’t. Serve immediately in warmed bowls - Always have fresh grated cheese on the side….now for this you can grate some provolone – it is a bit moist and soft and will melt nicely into the dish….mmmmm. I can taste it now.

Buon Appetito.