Australia data justify RBA easing bias expectations

Asian Mid-session Update: Lukewarm twin China PMIs help Shanghai recover; Australia data justify RBA easing bias expectations

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA MAY MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.2 (third consecutive expansion) V 50.3E; NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.2 (3-year low) V 53.4 PRIOR

- (CN) CHINA MAY FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.2 V 49.2E (third consecutive month of contraction)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -4.4% (7-month low) V -1.5%E; Y/Y: 16.3% V 20.5%E

- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.3% V 0.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.4% PRIOR

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 COMPANY OPERATING PROFIT Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.0%E; INVENTORIES Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.1%E

- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY RPDATA/RISMARK HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: -0.9% V +0.8% PRIOR; first decline in 6 months

- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY AIG MANUFACTURING INDEX: 52.3 V 48 PRIOR (first expansion in 6 months)

- (JP) JAPAN Q1 CAPITAL SPENDING Y/Y: +7.3% (1-year high) V -0.2%E; CAPITAL SPENDING EX-SOFTWARE Y/Y: 8.1% (7-year high) V 2.0%E

- (JP) JAPAN MAY FINAL MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.9 V 50.9 PRELIM

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY TRADE BALANCE: $6.3B V $6.2BE

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.8 V 48.8 PRIOR (3rd consecutive contraction)

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 -0.3%, S&P/ASX -1.4%, Kospi -0.8%, Shanghai Composite +2.2%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Jun S&P500 +0.2% at 2,109

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Aug gold +0.1% at $1,190/oz, Jul crude oil -0.8% at $59.80/brl, Jul copper +0.3% at $2.74/lb

- According to a senior Gulf OPEC delegate, OPEC will maintain its output target at the upcoming June 5th meeting - financial press

- USD/CNY: PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1207 v 6.1202 prior setting; weakest Yuan setting since Apr 28th

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥70B in JGBs with maturity less than 1-yr, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs, and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr

Market Focal Points/FX

- Asian equity indices are mixed, but last week's leaders have turned into laggards and vice versa. Shanghai Composite is leading the charge with a 2.2% rally after a steep selloff late last week, with the latest monthly PMI figures preserving expectations of continued PBoC easing. The rally is especially impressive given the elevated IPO activity in the pipeline on the mainland this week. Official manufacturing PMI was slightly higher from last month but missed expectations. Key components of New Export Orders and Employment also recovered slightly but remained in contraction at 48.9 and 48.2 respectively. Official non-manufacturing PMI was still in expansion but at the lowest level since early 2012, underscoring the challenges of the change in focus in China economy. HSBC final manufacturing PMI matched consensus but remained in contraction, as resident economist said: "solid fall in new export work contributed to fewer new orders, which in turn led to the first contraction of output in 2015 so far.... Furthermore, sustained job cuts, ongoing destocking activities and reduced purchasing activity all suggest that the sector may remain in contractionary territory as we head into mid-year." Also of note in China, a former official with PBoC warned about the near term risk of a sharp rise in bad loans, but a researcher with CASS speculated the bull market will be sustained.

- Ahead of tomorrow's RBA policy decision, today's economic figures justified widely held expectations for the easing bias to resurface. Building approvals and housing data were all lower, diminishing the criticism of more easing potentially fanning the property market. Note that earlier, Australia Treasurer said Sydney are Melbourne are "unequivocally" in a property market bubble. AUD/USD started off with modest selling, falling some 20pips to 0.7635 as Moody's warned that Australia's latest slowdown in CAPEX signals growth concerns. The pair hit its lows of 0.7625 after building approvals showed their biggest sequential decline in 7 months. China PMI figures produced virtually no change in the Aussie currency.

- Over the weekend, Greece negotiators continued to talk with European creditors but missed self-imposed Sunday deadline of reaching a deal. Greek cabinet officials remain optimistic. Econ Min said a deal is expected in a few days and that Greece is not in danger of missing the IMF payment scheduled for June 5th. Greek Interior Min also signalled the resistance in Athens may be waning, stating that "some parts of our program could be pushed back by six months or maybe by a year, so that there is some balance." Also of note, EU's Juncker acknowledged that Greek exit from euro zone could damage trust in the euro. EUR/USD remained under pressure from the start of the session, falling about 60 pips to $1.0930.

Equities

US equities/ADRs:

- ALTR: Follow-up: Agreement with Intel to acquire Altera at about $54/shr or $17B could be announced as soon as Monday - financial press

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer discretionary: Ports Design 589.HK +10.2% (dispose stake in Port Asia); NagaCorp Ltd 3918.HK +3.7% (profit guide)

- Financials: HTSC 6886.HK +4.4% (IPO debut); SooChow Securities Co 601555.CN -3.3% (private placement)

- Industrials: UGL Ltd UGL.AU +7.3% (FY15 guidance); Honda Motor Co 7267.JP -0.5% (may lower Japan production target); Sumitomo Rubber Industries 5110.JP +0.6% (speculation of Goodyear partnership breakup)

- Technology: Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co 600522.CN +10.0% (awarded military contract)

- Materials: China National Materials Company 1893.HK +5.4% (Sinoma unit private offering); Zhaojin Mining Industry 1818.HK -1.9% (to acquire mining stake); Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co 600259.CN +4.0% (private placement); Fortescue Metals Group FMG.AU -2.1% (says no need for equity investment from China)

- Utilities: Shenergy Co Ltd 600642.CN +10.0% (two nuclear companies' merger)

- Healthcare: Prana Biotechnology Ltd PBT.AU +11.1% (approves orphan designation); Hualan Biological Engineering Inc 002007.CN +7.1%, Yunnan Baiyao Group Co 000538.CN +3.0% (China to lift drug pricing control)