Lower oil prices continue to weigh on Japan inflation

Economic Data

- (JP) JAPAN FEB TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.2%E

- (JP) JAPAN JAN NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 2.2% (10-month low) V 2.3%E

- (JP) JAPAN JAN JOBLESS RATE: 3.6% (4-month high) V 3.4%E; JOB TO APPLICANT RATIO: 1.14 V 1.15E

- (JP) JAPAN JAN OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: -5.1% V -4.1%E; 10TH MONTH OF DECLINE

- (JP) JAPAN JAN RETAIL SALES M/M: -1.3% V -0.4%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: -2.0% V -1.2%E

- (JP) JAPAN JAN PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 4.0% V 2.7%E; Y/Y: -2.6% V -3.1%E

- (JP) JAPAN JAN VEHICLE PRODUCTION Y/Y: -9.7% V -2.5% PRIOR (7th consecutive decline)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.6% (3-month high) V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 6.2% V 6.0%E

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -3.8% V -2.3% PRIOR; 2nd straight decline

- (NZ) New Zealand Jan M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.3% Prior

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 40.9 V 37.3 PRIOR; ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 34.4 (6-month high) V 30.4 PRIOR

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR BUSINESS MANUFACTURING SURVEY: 82 V 73 PRIOR; NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY: 74 V 70 PRIOR

- (SG) Singapore Jan M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 0.1% v 3.6% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.3% prior

Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Mar S&P500 -0.1% at 2,107

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Apr gold flat at $1,209, Apr crude oil -0.3% at $48.84/brl, Mar Copper -0.6% at $2.68/lb

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1475 v 6.1379 prior setting (weakest yuan setting since Nov 7th)

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥400B in 3-5yr JGBs and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 2.75% bonds due 2019; Avg yield: 1.9170%; Bid-to-cover: 4.82x

- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Feb 25th: $4.49T v $4.50T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.45T v $4.46T prior; M1 y/y change: 9.3% v 9.3% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.9% v 5.9% w/w

Market Focal Points/FX

- Raft of fresh data out of Japan continues to signal that all of policymakers' cheerleading of the economy has yielded little progress. Jobless rate rose to a 4-month high after falling to 17-year lows last month despite reports of tightening labor markets going into the spring wage talks. Household spending was also down again, falling for the 10th straight month, while the drop in retail sales was wider than expected. CPI figures, the most closely monitored metric for its potential implication on BOJ policy, were similarly unimpressive. Nationwide, core CPI hit a 10-month low of 2.2%, and stripping away the tax increase impact core CPI fell to just 0.2% from 0.5% in December. Subsequent commentary from BOJ Gov Kuroda once again showed the central bank is taking the latest developments in stride - reiterating economy is on "moderate recovery trend", exports are picking up, and the BOJ will only monitor to the impact of oil prices on inflation rather than responding with more policy measures. Kuroda added there is no single measurement that accurately captures price trends, and that over the long term the impact of lower oil will be positive for economy. Despite the troubling data, USD/JPY was little moved in Asian trade, contained to a 20pip range below 119.40.

- Latest survey for the RBA policy decision next week saw some 60% of economists forecasting another 25bp rate cut, along the lines of more dovish expectations following yesterday's soft CAPEX data. Fitch noted the mining slowdown will have little impact on the robust housing sector since less than 1% of mortgages are located in the mining districts, and that sentiment was also echoed by the latest Australia credit data showing housing loans rising 7.1% vs 5.6% prior. Australia's Woolworths fell nearly 9% after first half results as earnings slowed and the outlook for H2 warranted "additional flexibility to make the necessary investments to deliver on our long term plans". Despite the large decline in this key retailer, ASX200 was up marginally headed into the close.

- Shanghai Composite continued its rally despite the cautious sentiment from the National Stats Bureau. NBS noted single digit export growth could be new norm for China, and the potential for improvement in external demand may be limited, as developing economies begin to feel the spillover effect of Fed rate hikes. To ease some of the burden on exports, PBoC has notably weakened the Yuan setting midpoint in today's session to its lowest level since early November.

Equities

US markets:

- ABTL: Reports Q4 $0.23 v $0.03e, R$26.0M v $25.7Me; +15.6% afterhours

- MNST: Reports Q4 $0.72 v $0.59e, R$606M v $585Me; +8.6% afterhours

- AIRM: Reports Q4 $0.59 v $0.45e, R$249.2M v $249Me; +8.4% afterhours

- SPLK: Reports Q4 $0.09 v $0.05e, R$147M v $137Me; +5.7% afterhours

- ROST: Reports Q4 $1.20 v $1.11e, R$3.03B v $2.93Be; Adds $1.4B to buyback (6.7% of market cap); increases dividend 14% to $0.235 from $0.20; +4.6% afterhours

- ADSK: Reports Q4 $0.25 v $0.24e, R$665M v $652Me; +3.0% afterhours

- GPS: Reports Q4 $0.75 v $0.74e, R$4.71B v $4.70Be; approves $1.0B buyback, raises dividend to $0.23 from $0.22; +2.9% afterhours

- HPP: Reports FFO Q4 $0.32 v $0.30e, R$69M v $66.3Me; Disloses JV w/Calif Pension Plan subsequent; +1.5% afterhours

- EVHC: Reports Q4 $0.36 v $0.36e, R$1.16B v $1.16Be; +1.2% afterhours

- HLF: Reports Q4 $1.41 (adj) v $1.16e, R$1.13B v $1.15Be; -1.5% afterhours

- CROX: Reports Q4 -$0.70 (incl items) v -$0.31e, R$206M v $204Me; -2.3% afterhours

- IM: Reports Q4 $0.98 v $0.98e, R$14.0B v $12.9Be; -5.8% afterhours

- JCP: Reports Q4 $0.00 v $0.12e, R$3.89B v $3.88Be; -12.7% afterhours

- WTW: Reports Q4 $0.07 (adj) v $0.08e, R$328M v $340Me; -15.2% afterhours

- TUBE: Reports Q4 -$0.14 v -$0.15e, R$36.1M v $32.0Me; -26.5% afterhours

- OMCL: Signs agreement to acquire Germany-based pharmacy automation provider, MACH4 Pharma Systems, terms not disclosed; Adjusts FY15 guidance after acquisition

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Huayi Brothers Media Corp 300027.CN +8.0% (prelim FY14 results); Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration 002081.CN -2.0% (prelim FY14 reuslts); Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929.HK -5.2% (Feb Op results); Skymark Airlines 9204.JP -42.3% (ANA not intend to take a controlling stake in Skymark); Mantra Group MTR.AU -4.3% (H1 results); Qantas Airways QAN.AU +2.8% (Jan Op result; Moody's raises outlook)

- Consumer staples: Woolworths Limited WOW.AU -8.9% (H1 results)

- Materials: Evolution Mining EVN.AU -9.4% (shareholder cuts stake); Beadell Resources BDR.AU -7.3% (FY14 results)

- Energy: Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology 2208.HK -2.4% (prelim FY14 results)

- Industrials: BYD Company Limited 1211.HK -3.2% (prelim FY14 results); Toyo Tanso 5310.JP +6.4% (FY14 results); NRW Holdings NWH.AU -7.5% (H1 results); GrainCorp GNC.AU -3.4% (FY15 guidance)

- Technology: Feiyu Technology International 1022.HK +6.6% (cooperation with Tencent)