China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI resumes expansion

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA FEB HSBC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.1 V 49.5E (first expansion after two months of contraction)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 WAGE COST INDEX Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.5% (17-year low) V 2.5%E

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE Q/Q: -0.2% V -1.0%E; smallest decline in 5 quarters

- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: +0.7% V -0.4% PRIOR (first increase in 3 months)

- (KR) South Korea Feb Consumer Confidence: 103 v 102 prior; 2nd straight increase

Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi +0.7%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.4%, Mar S&P500 flat at 2,112

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Apr gold +0.7% at $1,209, Apr crude oil +0.1% at $49.30/brl, Mar Copper -0.8% at $2.63/lb

- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +8.9M (7th straight build) v +4.5Me, GASOLINE: -1.6M v -1.0Me, DISTILLATE: -2.4M v -3.5Me

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥400B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥140B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 2.75% bonds due 2024; Avg yield: 2.4382%; Bid-to-cover: 2.99x

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1384 v 6.1330 prior setting; weakest Yuan setting since Feb 2nd

Market Focal Points/FX

- China mainland market returned from a week-long holiday break to little fanfare, entering its midday break unchanged despite the surprise rebound in HSBC flash manufacturing PMI into expansion territory. Note that in the past, weak PMI results have often produced rallies in expectation of more aggressive PBoC policy easing. HSBC chief economist's commentary was mixed, noting firmer domestic demand but a contraction in export orders for the first time since April of last year. Input and output prices were also still in contraction, justifying continued policy support to deal with economic activity "remaining sluggish". Separately in China, local press cited an official with the NDRC suggesting the govt may push forward some infrastructure projects in 2015 to promote regional development in the midwest parts of the country.

- Hong Kong Financial Sec Tsang unveiled 2014 final GDP slowing to 2.3% from 3% in 2013 and guiding 2015 in 1-3% range - well below 3.9% annual average of the past decade. Tsang added Hong Kong govt will offer some stimulus via lower income tax and will be prepared to offer new measures for the property sector in the event of market turmoil. Hong Kong-traded Macau gaming stocks were also sharply lower on chatter the govt will hold talks with Beijing about potentially capping the number of visitors from China due to the adverse effects of the gambling industry on the residents.

- Down under, Australia PM Abbott announced regulators will begin to charge foreign home buyers an application fee, though he also insisted the move is not intended to deter foreign investment. Treasury Sec Fraser also noted residential property sector is still growing strongly while household spending and overall economy are below trend. Australia economic data indicated as much, with Q4 construction showing renewed growth in residential segment of +2.5% v -1.6% prior and a decline of -2.9% v -0.1% prior in non-residential space. Wages were also softer than expected, falling to the lowest annual rate of increase in 17 years, boosting the likelihood of a dovish RBA policy statement next week. In New Zealand, RBNZ Gov Wheeler noted Auckland is faced with a housing shortage, but it was mainly a problem from the supply side.

- Japan Upper House approved Yutaka Harada as a board member for the BOJ. Recall on Feb 5th, nomination of Yutaka - a staunch reflationist who could support further easing - was welcomed by Yen bears. Separately, Sankei reported Japan govt could consider annual targets to help rein in deficits.

- Among the FX majors, USD remained under pressure across the board as markets continued to reprice the likelihood of a liftoff in US fed funds rate following the perception of a rather dovish set of comments from Fed Chair Yellen to Congress. USD/JPY fell about 40pips to ¥118.60, AUD/USD was up 60pip above $0.7880 with added lift after stronger China flash PMI, GBP/USD was up about 30pips near 3-month highs of $1.5480, and NZD/USD was up about 60pips from the lows around $0.7540.

Equities

US markets:

- CBI: Reports Q4 $1.47 v $1.43e, R$3.37B v $3.45Be; +4.7% afterhours

- VRSK: Reports Q4 $0.65 v $0.63e, R$464.9M v $456Me; +1.5% afterhours

- HLS: Reports Q4 $0.55(adj) v $0.52e, R$613.4M v $605Me; +0.3% afterhours

- FSLR: Reports Q4 $1.89 (gaap) v $0.71e, R$1.01B v $1.27Be; -0.9% afterhours

- PZZA: Reports Q4 $0.52 v $0.50e, R$425.5M v $412Me; -4.2% afterhours

- HPQ: Reports Q1 $0.92 v $0.91e, R$26.8B v $27.4Be; -7.0% afterhours

- SLCA: Reports Q4 $0.61 v $0.71e, R$249.6Mv $238Me; -8.0% afterhours

- DWA: Reports Q4 -$3.08 v -$3.15e, R$234.2M v $268Me; -8.7% afterhours

- LC: Reports Q4 $0.01 v $0.01e, R$69.6M v $65.2Me; -10.4% afterhours

- SAM: Reports Q4 $1.40 v $1.51e, R$233M v $239Me; -12.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Wanxiang Qiaochao 000559.CN -1.8% (to delay launch of Fisker Karma EV); Surfstitch Group SRF.AU +4.6% (H1 results); Southern Cross Austereo SXL.AU +12.8% (H1 results); Retail Food Group RFG.AU +11.3% (H1 results); Seven West Media SVW.AU +9.0% (H1 results); Wynn Macau 1128.HK -6.4%, Sands China 1928.HK -6.2% (Macau, Beijing consider to restrict arrivals from mainland)

- Financials: Huaxia Bank 600015.CN -1.6% (Deutsche Bank may re-consider holdings in Huaxia Bank); Cedar Woods Properties CWP.AU +4.5% (H1 results); Charter Hall Group CHC.AU +4.3% (H1 results)

- Materials: Rusal 486.HK +1.8% (FY14 results); Pact Group Holdings PGH.AU -10.0% (H1 results)

- Industrials: Worley Parsons WOR.AU -14.1% (H1 results); MacMahon Holdings MAH.AU +26.5% (H1 results)

- Healthcare: Ain Pharmaciez 9627.JP +10.6% (9-month results)