China industrial profit growth recovers

Asian Market Update: China industrial profit growth recovers; Twitter plummets on slowing user growth

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA SEPT INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: +0.4% V -0.6% PRIOR

- (JP) JAPAN SEPT RETAIL SALES M/M: 2.7% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 2.3% (6-month high) V 0.8%E

- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 114.6 (12-week high) v 111.6 prior

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 105 V 107 PRIOR (lowest reading since July)

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 -0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +1.0%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,957

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Dec gold flat at $1,229, Dec crude oil -0.4% at $80.61/brl, Dec Copper +0.2% at $3.07/lb

- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 14-day repos (25th consecutive drain); Offer yield at 3.4%, unchanged from prior

- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.47T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.012% (record low) v 0.074% prior; bid to cover: 4.80x v 6.44x prior

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$200M in 2022 indexed bonds; Average yield of 0.8749%; Bid-to-cover: 3.72x

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1421 v 6.1446 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Oct 20th)

Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX

- Shanghai Composite is leading the regional indices higher, helped by a rebound in the Industrial Profits growth in September. Recall the Aug profits turned negative for the first time in 2 years. Traders are also buying into the outsized overnight selloff following reports of a delay in Hong Kong-Shanghai link.

- BOJ Gov Kuroda testified in Parliament, largely reiterating prior commentary on the yen and the economy. Kuroda said the weakness in JPY is a positive for the economy, that recovery is moderate, and that inflation is still on track to hit 2% target in FY15. Note that the BOJ is preparing to formally update investors on its outlook for growth and inflation later this week. A Nikkei report earlier suggested FY14/15 GDP may be revised down to 0.6% from 1.0% due to the continuing drag from the consumption tax that went into effect in April. Also of note, Japan retail sales came in surprisingly stronger, potentially raising the probability of another sales tax hike next year.

- Twitter is one of the largest movers on the downside afterhours, falling over 10% despite beating the top line consensus numbers and raising FY estimates. Analysts point to the slowdown in the Average Monthly Active Users (MAUs), with q/q growth falling to 1.1% from 6.3% in Q2, predominantly because of high Twitter use during the World Cup this summer.

- Volatility in FX is subdued ahead of the pivotal FOMC policy meeting this Wednesday where the Fed will likely mark the end of QE3 with the final $15B taper. USD/JPY and EUR/USD are trading in a 20pip range below ¥108 and $1.2720 respectively. AUD/USD is outperforming with a 30pip rise from the lows above $0.8820.

Equities

US markets:

- RCPT: Reports Positive Phase 2 Results for TOUCHSTONE Trial of RPC1063 in Ulcerative Colitis; Plans to initiate Phase 2 study of RPC1063 for the treatment of Crohn's disease in 2015; +30.7% afterhours

- MSG: Board unanimously approves plan to explore possible spin-off; authorizes up to $500M of stock repurchases; +16.6% afterhours

- RGC: Reports Q3 $0.18 v $0.19e, R$694M $727Me; Declares Special Cash Dividend of $1.00/shr (4.9% indicated yield) and Announces Exploration of Strategic Alternatives; +15.3% afterhours

- SANM: Reports Q4 $0.61 v $0.53e, R$1.69B v $1.63Be; +14.6% afterhours

- BWLD: Reports Q3 $1.14 v $1.06e, R$373.5M v $371Me; Increasing prices 3%; +6.3% afterhours

- WMGI: To merge with Tournier NV, deal valued at $3.3B; receives FDA approvable for Augment Bone Graft; reports prelim Q3 Rev $71.3M v $75.8Me; raises FY14 Rev guidance to $298-302M v $309Me (prior $308-312M); +4.0% afterhours

- AMGN: Reports Q3 $2.30 v $2.11e, R$5.03B v $4.92Be; +1.0% afterhours

- HIG: Reports Q3 $1.06 v $0.84e, R$4.77B v $3.14Be; +0.5% afterhours

- UHS: Reports Q3 $1.36 v $1.37e, R$2.02B v $1.99Be; -1.2% afterhours

- HLS: Reports Q3 $0.55 v $0.48e, R$596.9M v $594Me, adjusts FY14 $2.24-2.27 v $2.02e, adj EBITDA $575-580M (prior $2.25-2.31, adj EBITDA $570-580M); -2.0% afterhours

- CROX: Reports Q3 $0.30 v $0.14e, R$302.4M v $298Me, guides Q4 Rev $200-210M v $229Me ; -3.3% afterhours

- KSS: Guides Q3 SSS -1.4%; FY14 at low end of prior range at $4.05-4.45 v $4.32e; -4.9% afterhours

- TWTR: Reports Q3 $0.01 v $0.01e, R$361M v $352Me; MAUs +23% v +24% q/q; -11.0% afterhours

- AMKR: Reports Q3 $0.20 v $0.26e, R$813M v $840Me; -13.2% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Energy: Beach Energy BPT.AU -6.4% (Q1 results)

- Consumer Discretionary: Stanley Electric 6923.JP +5.1% (H1 results)

- Materials: Alacer Gold Corp AQG.AU +2.5% (Q3 results); BC Iron BCI.AU -12.8% (Q1 results, cuts FY15 sales target); Silver Lake Resources SLR.AU -6.4% (Q3 results)

- Industrials: Sufa Technology Industry Co Ltd CNNC 000777.CN +10.0%, Shenzhen Woer Heat-Shrinkable Material 002130.CN +6.1%, Dongfang Electric 600875.CN +3.8% (China Premier comments on nuclear power); Tianjin Port Development 600717.CN +5.5%, Tianjin Jinbin Development 000897.CN +2.9% (China Pres comments on free trade zone trials); IHI Corp 7013.JP -6.0% (lower H2 op profit, rev guidance); Hino Motors 7205.JP -2.3% (press speculation on H1 results)

- Healthcare: Takeda Pharmaceutical 4502.JP +0.6% (court reduces fine)

- Utilities: Fujikura 5803.JP -8.3% (H1 results)