Japan CPI slows further ahead of BOJ growth projections

Asian Market Update: Japan CPI slows further ahead of BOJ growth projections and GPIF allocation update

Economic Data

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 PPI Q/Q: 0.2% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.2% V 2.3% PRIOR

- (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.5% (3-month high) V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.3%E

- (JP) JAPAN SEPT OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: -5.6% (6th consecutive y/y decline) V -4.3%E

- (JP) JAPAN SEPT NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.3%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 3.0% (6-month low) V 3.0%E

- (JP) JAPAN OCT TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.7%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 2.5% (7-month low) V 2.5%E

- (JP) JAPAN SEPT JOBLESS RATE: 3.6% V 3.6%E

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 5.3% V 5.2% PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -12.2% (largest decline in 3 years) V 1.0%E

- (SG) SINGAPORE Q3 PRELIMINARY UNEMPLOYMENT: 1.9% V 2.0%E

- (TW) TAIWAN Q3 PRELIM GDP Y/Y: 3.8% V 3.9%E

- (UK) OCT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -2 V -1E (3-month low)

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +1.7%, S&P/ASX +0.5%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite flat%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 1,990

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Dec gold flat at $1,198, Dec crude oil -0.2% at $80.99/brl, Dec copper flat $3.06

- FCG.NZ: China lifts suspension on its whey powder exports

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 741.2 tonnes; Lowest level since Oct 2008

- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Oct 29th: $4.49T v $4.48T prior; M1 y/y change: 10.2% (6-month low) v 10.4% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.2% (6-month low) v 6.3% w/w

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2019 Bonds; Avg yield: 2.8185%; Bid-to-cover: 6.12x

Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX

- Starbucks and LinkedIn were among the high-profile cult stocks reporting after US market close. SBUX was down nearly 5% after missing lofty estimates on both the top and bottom line, even though the company increased its projections for store count in FY15. EPS guidance was slightly below ests as well. LNKD beat on profit and sales, and also guided higher for the balance of FY14, sending shares up over 3%.

- Australia's Macquarie was up over 2% and ANZ up slightly after reporting H1 and FY results respectively. MQG posted H1 Net A$678M v A$645Me and ROE rose nearly 400bps to 12.5%, with interim dividend up 30% y/y. ANZ FY14 was Net A$7.1B v A$6.9Be, though NIMs fell 9bps to 2.13 while CET1 rose 30bps to 8.8%.

- USD/JPY got up within 50pips of its 6-year highs of around ¥110 late in the US session and maintained much of those gains on another Nikkei report anticipating a formal announcement of GPIF pension fund rebalancing that will feature a 25% domestic stock allocation and lower JGB holdings. Separately, Japan core CPI for the country and Tokyo regions saw 6- and 7-month lows respectively, as price pressures continue to ease due to lower energy prices and adverse weather at the end of summer. BOJ will also announce results shortly featuring updated projections for GDP and inflation, with recent speculation growth outlook may be reduced.

- In China, PBoC Dep Gov Yi warned that bad debt at China major banks is mounting after several top-tier financials revealed a troubling rise in NPLs earlier this week. CSRC dep chief Yao eased investor concerns however, indicating the recently delayed Hong Kong-Shanghai interconnect trading link is now in the final stages of preparation.

Equities

US markets:

- GPRO: Reports Q3 $0.10 v $0.08e, R$280M v $263Me; +15.5% afterhours

- SAM: Reports Q3 $2.79 v $2.35e, R$269.7M v $259Me; +9.1% afterhours

- BYD: Reports Q3 $0.00 v $0.00e, R$738.8M v $733Me; +8.3% afterhours

- EHTH: Reports Q3 $0.17 v $0.06e, R$41.2M v $41.8Me; +6.6% afterhours

- GRPN: Reports Q3 $0.03 v $0.01e, R$757.1M v $747Me; +4.5% afterhours

- SRPT: FDA statement on Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy; +3.9% afterhours

- LNKD: Reports Q3 $0.52 v $0.47e, R$568.3M v $558Me; +3.5% afterhours

- WU: Reports Q3 $0.44 v $0.39e, R$1.44B v $1.43Be; +2.7% afterhours

- EXPE: Reports Q3 $1.93 adj v $1.75e, R$1.71B v $1.69Be; +2.4% afterhours

- MYL: Reports Q3 $1.16 v $1.14e, R$2.08B v $2.06Be; +2.1% afterhours

- NEM: Reports Q3 $0.50 v $0.18e, R$1.75B v $1.74Be; +2.1% afterhours

- TSO: Reports Q3 $3.06 v $2.15e, R$11.15B v $11.3Be; +1.7% afterhours

- OUTR: Reports Q3 $1.44 v $1.14e, R$552.9M v $555Me; +1.6% afterhours

- EMN: Reports Q3 $1.89 v $1.80e, R$2.41B v $2.41Be; +1.6% afterhours

- FLR: Reports Q3 $1.15 v $1.10e, R$5.44B v $6.16Be; +1.4% afterhours

- SCSC: Reports Q1 $0.75 v $0.61e, R$791.7M v $753Mel guides Q2 $0.64-0.66 v $0.67e; -1.3% afterhours

- C: Restates Q3 results lower citing $600M in legal accruals; lowers net income from $3.4B to $2.8B; -1.9% afterhours

- DGI: Reports Q3 $0.00 v $0.01e, R$154.6M v $155Me; -4.5% afterhours

- SBUX: Reports Q4 $0.74 v $0.75e, R$4.18B v $4.23Be; -4.6% afterhours

- TPX: Reports Q3 $0.88 v $0.89e, R$827.4M v $796Me; -12.8% afterhours

- TRMB: Reports Q3 $0.33 v $0.38e, R$584.8M v $604Me; -15.2% afterhours

- AEGR: Reports Q3 $0.12 v -$0.18e, R$43.6M v $49.1Me, lowers FY14 JUXTAPID net product sales $150-160M (prior lower end of $180-200M); -30.3% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Technology: Nikon 7731.JP +3.1% (raises H1 guidance); Fujitsu 6702.JP -5.8% (H1 results); Otsuka 4768.JP -7.1% (9M results); Kyocera 6971.JP +4.7% (H1 results, FY14/15 guidance)

- Consumer discretionary: CyberAgent 4751.JP +8.7% (FY14 results); Suning Appliance 002024.CN +2.1% (Q3 results)

- Industrials: Yamato Holdings 9064.JP +8.0% (H1 results); Sumitomo Heavy 6302.JP +3.1% (H1 results, raises FY14/15 Net, op profit guidance); Enplas Corp 6961.JP -17.7% (h1 results, lowers FY14/15 guidance); NGK Insulators 5333.JP -3.6% (H1 results)

- Energy: Tohoku Electric 9506.JP +4.7% (H1 results)

- Financials: ORIX 8591.JP +4.2% (H1 results); Guoyuan Securities 000728.CN +2.5%, Sinolink Securities +3.6% (CSRC official comments on Shanghai-Hong Kong trading link); Macquarie Group MQG.AU +2.4% (H1 results); ANZ Bank ANZ.AU +0.5% (FY14 results); Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 600000.CN +1.2% (Q3 results); Bank of China 3988.HK +0.8% (Q3 results)