China lending slumps

Asian Market Update: China lending slumps, Japan Q2 GDP contraction less than expected

Economic Data

- (JP) JAPAN Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -1.7% (biggest decline in 5 years) V -1.8%E; GDP NOMINAL Q/Q: -0.1% V 0.0%E; ANNUALIZED GDP Q/Q: -6.8% V -7.0%E

- (CN) CHINA JULY AGGREGATE FINANCING (CNY): 273.1B V 1.5TE (lowest since Oct 2008)

- (CN) CHINA JULY NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 385.2B V 780BE (lowest since Jan 2010)

- (CN) CHINA JULY M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.5% V 14.4%E; M1 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 6.7% V 8.6%E

- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 98.5 V 94.9 PRIOR; M/M: 3.8% (3th consecutive rise, highest increase in 11 months) V 1.9% PRIOR

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 WAGE COST INDEX Q/Q: 0.6% (3-quarter low) V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.6%E

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.4% V 3.5%E; Participation rate 63.2% v 62.4%; record high for 3rd consecutive month

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JULY BANK LENDING TO HOUSEHOLD (KRW): 492.0T V 488.9T PRIOR

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 1,932

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Dec gold -0.1% at $1,309, Sept crude oil -0.2% at $97.17/brl; Sept Copper falls below $3.14/lb following soft China lending data; 6-week lows

- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +0.23M (first build in 7 weeks) v -2Me, GASOLINE: +2.7M v -1.5Me, DISTILLATE: -2.6M v +0.5Me

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥110B in JGB with maturity less than 1-yr, ¥100B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥30B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2025 Bonds; avg yield: 3.5296%; bid-to-cover: 3.23x

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1533 v 6.1517 prior setting (1st weaker setting in 5 sessions)

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- Initial estimate of Japan Q2 GDP saw the economy contract by the biggest margin since the great earthquake over 3 years ago, but was still not as bad as expected despite JCER warning real-terms contraction would be bigger than estimated last month. Among components, private consumption was down 5% - bigger drop than 3.7% expected - and net exports contribution was at -1.1%.
Govt consumption was the only positive component, rising 0.4% from -0.1% in Q1. Speaking after the GDP release, Econ Min Amari said gradual recovery trend is continuing and policy response would be flexible. Amari did not allude to the possibility of further stimulus, attributing the weakness to the impact of sales tax hike and stating that no extra budget is needed at this point. Concurrently, BOJ released the minutes of mid-July meeting, stating it would examine risks and modify policies if necessary. Recall those minutes are from the meeting that preceded one last week when BOJ cut its view on exports and output. USD/JPY was little changed on the GDP release, remaining below ¥102.30.

- China posted a surprising slump in July lending activity, prompting analyst speculation of a possible easing by the PBoC. New Yuan Loans were at the lowest level in nearly 6 years, while aggregate financing reflected the steep decline in the shadow banking activity. Housing sector weakness was also reflected in the data, as mortgage lending fell to CNY206.2B from CNY357.5B prior. PBoC said money supply, credit level and aggregate financing growth are still in reasonable range, noting weaker loan demand due to slowdown of economy and property market. PBOC added it would continue prudent monetary policy with timely fine-tuning. The balance of July economic data - industrial output, retail sales, fixed investment - are expected shortly.

- Out of Australia, Aug Westpac consumer Sentiment improvement tracked better NAB business sentiment released overnight, rising at the fastest rate in 11 months. Westpac economist noted "households do appear to be gradually feeling more secure in their employment despite the negative reception to the budget," adding another month of employment data is needed to explain the disappointing print in July figures. CBA was down nearly 1% on FY14 results showing only a modest rise in profits and net interest margins, with analysts also noting the rise in bad debt charges in the second half. Suncorp rose nearly 3% on rising FY14 profits and a 33% increase in dividend payout.

- In the Middle East, Egypt mediators have ironed out a compromise to Israeli and Hamas negotiators as 72-hour ceasefire appears to be holding. Egypt deal involves an easing on Gaza blockade, though Hamas continues to demand for the blockade to be lifted. US Defense Sec Hagel also stated 130 more US advisors have arrived in the north Iraq city of Erbil, while an unnamed official said US is contemplating leading an international military operation on the ground to help rescue thousands of trapped Yazidi refugees from ISIS militants.

Equities

US markets:

- FLT: Guides initial FY15 $6.25-6.45 (incl acquisition) v $5.87e, Confirms Agrees to Acquire Comdata for $3.45B; +3.2% afterhours

- FOSL: Reports Q2 $0.98 v $0.96e, R$773.8M v $771Me; -2.2% afterhours

- JDSU: Reports Q4 $0.14 v $0.13e, R$449M v $436Me, guides Q115 $0.08-0.12 v $0.15e, R$405-425M v $443Me; -3.5% afterhours

- CREE: Reports Q4 $0.42 v $0.41e, R$436M v $446Me, guides Q1 $0.40-0.45 v $0.46e, R$440-465M v $468Me; -6.5% afterhours

- KING: Reports Q2 $0.59 v $0.59e, R$593M v $618Me; Announces $150M special dividend (approx $0.47/shr); reduces outlook for FY14; -20.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings 3088.JP -5.5% (Q1 results); Dentsu 4324.JP +2.8% (Q1 results); Echo Entertainment Group EGP.AU +4.1% (FY14 results)

- Financials: Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA.AU -0.8% (FY14 results), Xinhu Zhongbao 600208.CN +10.1% (resumes trading); New China Life 1336.HK +1.2% (July YTD operating results); Suncorp-Metway SUN.AU +2.8% (FY14 results); Computershare CPU.AU -3.9% (FY14 results)

- Materials: Pacific Metals 5541.JP +2.2% (Q1 results); OZ Minerals OZL.AU -2.7% (H1 results)

- Technology: Tongda Group 698.HK -3.4% (H1 results); Ulvac 6728.JP -23.8% (FY13/14 results); Carsales.com CRZ.AU -3.0% (FY14 results)

- Healthcare: CSL Limited CSL.AU +3.1% (FY14 results); Primary Healthcare PRY.AU -4.3% (FY14 results)

- Telecom: Amcom Telecommunications AMM.AU -4.1% (FY14 results)