China Q1 GDP slowed less than expected

Asian Market Update: China Q1 GDP slowed less than expected; Retail sales beat makes up for Industrial Production miss

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA Q1 REAL GDP Q/Q: 1.4% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.3%E; YTD: 7.4% V 7.3%E

- (CN) CHINA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 8.8% V 9.0%E

- (CN) CHINA MAR YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 17.6% V 18.0%E

- (CN) CHINA MAR RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 12.2% V 12.1%E

- (CN) CHINA Q1 BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX: 128.0 V 124.3 PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 CPI Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.7%E

- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: 0.0% (3-month high) V -0.1% PRIOR

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):

- Nikkei225 +2.3%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Jun S&P500 +0.4% at 1,846, Jun gold -0.2% at $1,297, May crude oil +0.1% at $103.83/brl

Highlights/Observations/Insights

- Strong earnings from Yahoo and Intel could further help to stall the tech sector meltdown observed in the Nasdaq in recent weeks. Yahoo Q1 was in line with estimates, but shares were up over 5% afterhours as Alibaba grew its revenues by over 65% y/y above $3B. Intel results were also in line with consensus but up in extended session. The company raised its gross margin guidance for FY14 and noted pockets of strength in the PC segment, particularly in enterprise and in the emerging markets.

- US Treasury released its Semi-Annual Currency Report without naming China an FX manipulator despite the recent reversal in gradual Yuan appreciation. The Treasury also softened its criticism of German imbalances evident in the prior report, and called for Japan's domestic economic policies to focus on boosting domestic demand.

- China released a raft of economic data that were dominated by a slightly better than expected Q1 GDP figures. Sentiment brightened on the release, sending China stocks, AUD and US equity futures higher at the expense of the risk-on funding JPY currency. Industrial production was a bit lower than expected, but retail sales topped estimates. China stats bureau noted consumption a decisive contributor to Q1 GDP growth, and that it may begin releasing online sales figures as well. NBS further stated the property market is generally stable, overall economy is in reasonable range, and employment is sound. Among notable March industrial production components, power generation grew 6.2% y/y and crude oil output rose 2.6%.

- BOJ Gov Kuroda remarks in Parliament were largely a reiteration, expressing confidence in achieving 2% inflation target from end of FY14 to FY15, and that the current policies are having intended effect. Kuroda also noted labor market is becoming considerably tighter, presumably a precursor to upward wage pressures actively sought by policymakers.

- BHP and Fortescue put out their quarterly production figures. BHP Q1 output of iron ore rose 23% y/y, while that of FMG was up 17%. BHP also raised its iron ore production for FY14 by 5Mt to 217Mt, adding that weather-related disruptions have been limited. Fortescue maintained its forecast, but noted strong iron ore demand from China urbanization policies.

Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy 250B in 1-3 yr JGB, 250B in 3-5 yr JGB, 400B in 5-10 yr JGB

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$1B in 3.25% bonds due 2018; Avg yield 3.2885%, bid-to-cover 3.12x

- (CN) China MoF sells 10-yr bonds; yield 4.3184%

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 0.6 tonnes to 806.8 tonnes (2nd consecutive increase)

- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +7.6M (largest build since June 2013) v +1.5Me, GASOLINE: -500K v -1.5Me

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1589 v 6.1571 prior setting (weakest setting since Sept 11th)

- Among the active USD majors, AUD/USD is up over 30pips from the lows above 0.9360 after better than expected China GDP. NZD/USD fell over 30pips below 0.86 after softer than expected Q1 CPI, reaching a low of 0.8577. USD/JPY was boosted by risk-on flows after China data, risking over 40pips above 102.20 - a 1-week high.

Equities

US markets:

- YHOO: Reports Q1 $0.38 v $0.37e, R$1.09B v $1.08Be; +6.8% afterhours

- IBKR: Reports Q1 $0.34 v $0.29e, R$355M v $216M y/y; +3.2% afterhours

- INTC: Reports Q1 $0.38 v $0.37e, R$12.8B v $12.8Be; Raises FY14 GM guidance; +1.5% afterhours

- CSX: Reports Q1 $0.40 v $0.38e, R$3.01B v $2.99Be; increases quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.16/shr; reaffirms FY guidance; +0.6% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: China Southern Airlines 1055.HK -1.2% (Q1 guidance)

- Consumer staples: Shandong Denghai Seeds 002041.CN -1.2% (prelim FY13 results)

- Financials: Founder Securities 601901.CN +4.5% (FY13 results)

- Materials: BHP Billiton BHP.AU +0.5% (Q3 operating results); Fortescue Metals Group FMG.AU -0.2% (Q3 operating results); Silver Lake Resources SLR.AU +3.0% (Q1 production results); Iluka Resources ILU.AU -6.6% (Q1 production results)

- Industrials: Xinjiang Urban Construction Group 600545.CN +9.8%, China West Construction Group 002302.CN +7.8%, Xinjiang International Industry 000159.CN +6.5% (Xinjiang related companies continue to trade higher on press speculation); CNR 601299.CN +0.9% (plans HK listing)

- Technology: Beijing Ultrapower Software 300002.CN +2.6% (awarded order); Sharp 6753.JP -0.4% (speculation on FY14/15 results)