today I analyzed the EUR/CAD forex pair and I came with the following projections (forecasts) for 1 month, 3 months and 12 months.
Hereunder are my forecasts for the EUR/CAD.
- 1 month: 1.4650
- 3 months: 1.42-1.144
- 12 months: back to 1.50 area (after a move into the 1.3850 lows)
Hereunder is the rationale for this analysis:
1. Price of EUR/CAD failed the sequence of measured movehigher and Program Trading is now looking to push it down into the 1.3850 areawithin the next year. On the weekly timeframe a measured move short is trading nowat its first target. We could get lower to the second target at around 1.465 and then wecould see a bounce that could last 2-3 weeks. In 1 month time I anticipate themove lower to have resumed and we could see prices at current or lower levels,again around that second target 1.4630.
2. 1.43 is the level to watch in the medium term (3 months). I anticipate the EUR to continue falling against the CAD for a numberof reasons:
1) first of all Program Trading is currently not committed to longs in theEUR/CAD market. The next level where long-term Program Trading will commit ison the long side is 1.38 in my opinion.
2) Moreover the two pairs we can break theEUR/CAD into, the EUR/USD x USD/CAD are both moving lower. There are technical and fundamental reasons to believe that the EUR/USD willmove to test 1.30, while USD/CAD has tested resistance at 1.12 and is nowcorreting into 1.04 and potentially lower. The EUR/CAD is not going to movehigher.
3. On the larger timeframes the EUR/CAD is bullish. Bybreaking recent high levels (1.55) before the start of the move lower , this pair confirmedbullishness on the long term. The retrace we are going to witness in the coming few months, is not long-term weakness, but rather a medium-term correction that only reflects the way healthy markets work. There is no interest for long-term Program Tradingin long positions, at this stage, and this will mean that algos on the smaller timeframes, e.g.daily and 4-hour, will be able to push price lower into the next area ofsupport for long-term Programs.
That area starts at 1.3850. If/when price gets there, the behavior of long termProgram at those levels will tell us the full story. If we get participation from Program Trading, in 1 year time price could go back to current levels or higher.
Happy Trading
~FibStalker
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY holds positive ground around 151.50 following Japanese CPI data
The USD/JPY pair holds positive ground for the second consecutive day near 151.45 on Friday during the early Asian trading hours. The cautious approach from the Bank of Japan to keep monetary conditions accommodative exerts some selling pressure on the Japanese Yen.
AUD/USD depreciates on risk aversion amid a stronger US Dollar
AUD/USD extends its losses for the second successive session on Friday. However, market activity is expected to be subdued due to light trading on Good Friday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar strengthens as recent data indicates annualized economic expansion in the United States, driven by consumer spending.
Gold price finishes Thursday’s session set to reach new all-time highs
Gold price rallied during the North American session on Thursday and hit a new all-time high of $2,225 in the mid-North American session. Precious metal prices are trending higher even though US Treasury yields are advancing, underpinning the Greenback.
Top 3 Price Prediction BTC, ETH, XRP: Retail watches from the sidelines with a bias for shorts
Bitcoin is showing strength as markets head into the Easter holidays. As it rises, altcoins are following suit, with Ethereum and Ripple posting almost similar gains. Meanwhile, there remains an unfilled CME Gap, with a lot of liquidity also resting above and below BTC price.
Bears have been standing before a steamroller so far this year
Despite a pushback on rate cuts from Christopher Waller, and what was supposed to be cautious trading sentiment ahead of critical US inflation data released later on Friday, the S&P 500 rose on Thursday, marking its best first-quarter performance in five years.