Nick Mastrandrea
Market Tea Leaves
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4:30 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Up at 93.770, the US Dollar is up 590 ticks and trading at 93.770.
Energies: June Crude is up at 61.29.
Financials: The June 30 year bond is down 19 ticks and trading at 155.00.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is down 8 ticks and trading at 2117.00.
Gold: The June gold contract is trading up at 1228.10. Gold is 29 ticks higher than its close.
Initial Conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and oil is up+ which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading down. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are down and Crude is trading up which is correlated. Gold is trading up which is not correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia traded mainly to the downside with the exception of the Nikkei and Sensex exchanges which traded lower. As of this writing Europe is trading mainly higher with the exception of the Milan exchange.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
- NAHB Housing Market Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
- Lack of economic news.
Currencies
On Friday the Swiss Franc made it’s move at around 9:40 AM EST after the economic news was reported. The USD hit a high at around that time and the Swiss Franc hit a low. If you look at the charts below the USD gave a signal at around 9:40 AM EST, while the Swiss Franc also gave a signal at just about the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. The USD hit a high at around 9:40 AM EST and the Swiss Franc hit a low. These charts represent the latest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a Renko chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the Swiss Franc, as a trader you could have netted 20 plus ticks on this trade. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Remember each tick on the Swiss Franc is equal to $12.50 versus $10.00 that we usually see for currencies.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform
Bias
On Friday we said our bias was neutral as the futures didn’t give much in terms of direction. The Dow gained 21 but the Nasdaq dropped 3 and the S&P gained 2. All in all a pretty much breakeven day. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
On Friday we said our bias was neutral as the futures didn’t give us any follow thru or sense of direction; hence the neutral bias. A neutral bias means the markets could go in any direction and it did. First down, then up then down and up again. The economic news reported didn’t lend much in terms of assistance. Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 3.1 versus 5.1 expected and all other news reported did not meet expectation. Unto itself this is not necessarily so bad as it means the Fed will think twice before raising rates sooner as opposed to later.
Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.
In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.
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