When Bad News = Good News

Good Morning Traders,

As of this writing 4:30 AM EST, here’s what we see:

US Dollar: Down at 98.405, the US Dollar is down 409 ticks and is trading at 97.045.
Energies: June Crude is up at 57.44.

Financials: The June 30 year bond is down 19 ticks and trading at 161.14.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 14 ticks and trading at 2110.50.

Gold: The June gold contract is trading down at 1193.20. Gold is 11 ticks lower from its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is up+ which is normal and the 30 year bond is trading down. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are up and Crude is trading up which is not correlated. Gold is trading down which is not correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

Asia traded mixed with half the exchanges trading lower and the other half higher. As of this writing all of Europe is trading higher.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

- Core Durable Goods Orders m/m are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

- Durable Goods Orders m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

Currencies

Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it’s move at around 10:30 AM EST after the Nat Gas numbers were released. The USD hit a high at around that time and the Swiss Franc hit a low. If you look at the charts below the USD gave a signal at around 10:30 AM EST, while the Swiss Franc also gave a signal at just about the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. The USD hit a high at around 10:30 AM EST and the Swiss Franc hit a low. These charts represent the latest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a Renko chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the Swiss Franc, as a trader you could have netted 20 plus ticks on this trade. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Remember each tick on the Swiss Franc is equal to $12.50 versus $10.00 that we usually see for currencies.

Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform

Bias

Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as the USD and Bonds were both trading higher. The Dow gained 20 points and the other indices gained as well. Today our is to the upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as the USD and Bonds were both trading higher yesterday morning. This ordinarily doesn’t bode well for an upside day. All the economic news reported didn’t meet or beat expectation so you might be wondering whats going on? Early this week FOMC Member Dudley has already hinted that the worse news becomes, the more likely the Fed will raise rates later as opposed to sooner. Basically this means that the worse the reports are the more likely the Fed will hike later as opposed to sooner. So it may very well be that the Fed doesn’t hike in June and in fact some have suggested this already. On the positive side, the Nasdaq reached an all time high yesterday.

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Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.

In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.