The US stock markets rallied solidly

The appetite for risk has spiked up significantly since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated late Wednesday that quantitative easing was here to stay because of a low inflation rate and a high unemployment rate. Bernanke joined the Europeans’ camp of reassuring the markets that rates will remain at record low; this suggests that the global economic recovery remains very weak.

The foreign currencies closed higher, but off their best levels, after surging late Wednesday. The US stock markets rallied solidly, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing at record highs. The oil/gold ratio fell.

The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long on most foreign currencies.

Good luck!        

 
Overnight

• US:    The initial jobless claims rose 16,000 to 360,000 in the week ended July 6th from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000.
• Canada: New Housing Price Index edged up 0.1% in May following +0.2% in April.   
  

 
Today's economic calendar

• Australia: Home loans for May
• Australia: Investment lending for homes for May
• Japan: Industrial production for May
• Japan: Bank of Japan monthly economic survey    
  

EUR – June 

The LGR Model: Long since July 10     

The September euro ended off a 2 ½-week high on Thursday after bottoming at three-month low on Tuesday. The euro is now trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. It had peaked at a four-month high on June 18. The euro had topped at a 14-month high on February 1 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.3125. Thursday’s high is 1.3212. A pivot high is at 1.3250. 
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3035. Further support is at 1.2930 and 1.2810. 
 
INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish              
MACD: Bearish              
Ichimoku: Sideways              
 
 
OUTLOOK
 
NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
 
 

JPY – September

The LGR Model: Long since July 10            
 
The September Japanese yen closed at a two-week high and above the 21-day exponential moving average after plunging for 3 1/2 weeks. The yen bounced from a near two-week on Monday and marked an over two-month high on June 13. The yen bottomed at a 4 1/2-year low on May 22 and peaked on June 13, 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0184. The next cap is 1.0245.
Initial support is at 1.0040. The next floor is .9925. A pivot low is at .9852.
 
INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
 
 
OUTLOOK
 
NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish          
LONG-TERM: Bearish  
 
 

GBP – September

The LGR Model: Short since June 19      

The September pound rallied to a one-week high on Thursday after bottoming at a three-year low on Tuesday. It is still trading just below the 21-day exponential moving average, so is not oversold any longer. The pound peaked at a four-month high on June 17 and bottomed at a 33-month low on March 12.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.5213. Further resistance is at 1.5305.
Immediate support is at 1.5115. 1.5025. A pivot low is at 1.4806. 
 
INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish               
Ichimoku: Sideways
 
 
OUTLOOK
 
NEAR-TERM: Sideways                          
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
 
 

CHF – September

The LGR Model: Long since July 10       
 
The September Swiss franc surged to a two-week high and closed just above the 21-day exponential moving average on Thursday. The franc bottomed at a 5 1/2-week low on Tuesday. It peaked at a new high for its upmove on June 13 and hit a nine-month low on May 22. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.0642. The next cap is 1.0700. 
Immediate support is at 1.0525. A further support is at 1.0480. Distant support is at 1.0350.
 
INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
 
 
OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways       
LONG-TERM: Sideways
 
 

CAD – September

The LGR Model: Long since July 8      

The September Canadian dollar ended off a three-week high on Thursday after bottoming at a 21-month low late last week. It is now trading above the 21-day moving average.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at .9670. Further resistance is at .9725.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9565. A pivot low is at .9409. 
 
 
INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
 
OUTLOOK
 
NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish  
 
 

AUD – September

The LGR Model: Long since July 9      

The September Australian dollar ended off a near two-week high on Thursday after bottoming at a three-year low last week. The Aussie peaked at a medium-term high on April 11 and had formed a peak for the uptrend on January 10.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average caps at .9225. The next caps are .9263 and .9355.
Immediate support is at .9080. The next floor is .9035. A pivot low is at .8987.  

INDICATORS
 
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
 
 
OUTLOOK
 
NEAR-TERM: Sideways     
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish