The appetite for risk is limited ahead of the US open in the aftermath of the strong US NFP report on Friday. As you recall, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced after the Fed's June 19 that the bond buying could run its course by mid-2014, depending on job market development. Elsewhere, the euro zone finance ministers will decide whether Greece can receive the last substantial tranche of aid in its bailout program. Greece remains a relatively manageable thorn for Europe, so it should receive the money.

The foreign currencies are seeking a base after collapsing late last week. The Asia/Pacific stock indexes fell. The European bourses are higher and the US stock markets are up in pre-open trading. The oil/gold ratio is down.

The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short all foreign currencies.

Good luck! 


Overnight

  • Japan: The current account balance showed a surplus of 540.7 billion yen in May following the 750.0 billion surplus in April.

  • Japan: The Eco watchers survey fell to 53 in June from 55.7 in May.

  • Eurozone: The Sentix investor confidence fell to -12.6 in July from -11.6 in June.

  • Germany: The trade surplus fell to €13.1 billion in June from €18 billion in April.

  • Germany: The current account fell to €11.2 billion in June from €16.7B billion in April.

  • Switzerland: The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in June.

  • Switzerland: Industrial production rose 3.0% in the first quarter from 1.7% in the fourth quarter.


Today's economic calendar

  • Canada: Building permits for May

  • Canada: Bank of Canada business outlook survey for the second quarter


EUR – June

The LGR Model: Short since June 21

The September euro opens under pressure in the US after sinking to a near three-month low on Thursday. It has been swapping directions for seven days. The euro is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It had peaked at a four-month high on June 18. The euro had topped at a 14-month high on February 1 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July 2012.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.

A pivot low is at 1.2770. Further support is at 1.2715.

Initial resistance is at 1.2927. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.3064.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways


JPY – September

The LGR Model: Short since June 20

The September Japanese yen opens at an over five-week low in the US after plunging late last week. The yen is forming a medium-term bearish flag targeting the .9550 area. It remains well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. The yen bounced from a near two-week on Monday and marked an over two-month high on June 13. The yen bottomed at a 4 1/2-year low on May 22 and peaked on June 13, 2012.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.

Immediate support is at .9760. A pivot low is at .9646.

Initial resistance is at .9918. The next cap is 1.0040. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0116.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Bearish


GBP – September

The LGR Model: Short since June 19

The September pound opens near a four-month low after collapsing late last week. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. The pound peaked at a four-month high on June 17 and bottomed at a 33-month low on March 12.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.

A pivot low is at 1.4830. Distant support is at 1.4715.

Initial resistance is at 1.4995. Further resistance is at 1.5120. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.5279.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CHF – September

The LGR Model: Short since June 26

The September Swiss franc opens at a five-week low in the US after sliding hard on Thursday and Friday. The franc trades well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It peaked at a new high for its upmove on June 13 and hit a nine-month low on May 22. The franc peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24, 2012.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is long.

Immediate support is at 1.0355. Further support is at 1.0280. A pivot low is at 1.0186.

Initial resistance is at 1.0400. The next caps are 1.0480 and 1.0545. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.0599.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CAD – September

The LGR Model: Short since June 19

The September Canadian dollar opens little changed in the US after dropping to a 21-month low late last week. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.

A pivot low is at .9367. Further support is at .9305 and .9250.

Initial resistance is at .9505. The next cap is .9575. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant .9573.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


AUD – September

The LGR Model: Short since June 17

The oversold September Australian dollar opens under pressure after falling to a three-year low on Wednesday. The Aussie peaked at a medium-term high on April 11 and had formed a peak for the uptrend on January 10.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.

Wednesday’s low is at .8987. Further support is at .8950 and .8885.

Initial resistance is at .9135. The next cap is .9200. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant .9253.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Bearish