The appetite for risk is limited ahead of the release of the NFP report. The European currencies open a little higher and the commodity currencies and yen lower after the European and commodity currencies were torpedoed on Thursday by the expected 25% ECB rate cut and by the prospects of negative deposit rates in the Eurozone. The yen opens just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Asian stock markets were mixed. The European bourses are little changed and the US stock markets are down in pre-open trading. The gold/oil ratio is up.

The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways ahead of the release of the US NFP report. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The LGR short-term model is long all foreign currencies.

Good luck!


Overnight

  • China: The non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.5 in April from 55.6 in March. 

  • Australia: The AiG Performance of Services Index fell to 44.1 in April from 49.6 in March.   

  • Australia: The PPI edged up 0.3% in the first quarter from 0.2% in the previous quarter. 

  • UK: The Markit services PMI edged up to 52.9 in April from 52.4in March.

  • Eurozone: The Producer Price Index slipped 0.2% in March after rising 0.2% in February.


Today's economic calendar

  • US: Nonfarm payrolls/unemployment rate for April

  • US: Factory orders for March 

  • US: ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April


EUR – June

The LGR Model: Long since April 5

The June euro opens a little higher after plunging on the expected ECB rate cut on Thursday and marking an over two-month high on Wednesday. It is trading just above the 21-day exponential moving average and isn’t overbought any longer. The euro peaked at a 14-month high on February 1 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July 2012.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is long.

Initial resistance is at 1.3150. Wednesday’s peak is 1.3248.

The 21-day moving average supports at 1.3040. Further support is at 1.2960.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Sideways

Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways


JPY – June

The LGR Model: Long since April 25

The June Japanese yen opens little changed after falling below the 21-day exponential moving average on Thursday and peaking at a two-week high on Tuesday. The yen marked a 3 2/3-year low on April 11 and peaked on September 13, 2012.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.

Initial support is at 1.0160. The next floor is 1.0085.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0305. Further resistance is at 1.0390.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Sideways

Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Bearish


GBP – June

The LGR Model: Long since April 25

The June pound opens little changed in the US after slipping on Thursday and reaching an over 2 ½-month high on Wednesday. The pound is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought. It had bottomed at a 33-month low on March 12. The pound is testing the top of a channel rising since March 12.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and the LGR model is long.

A medium-term peak is at 1.5603. Further resistance is at 1.5740.

Initial support is at 1.5480. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5381.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways

MACD: Bullish

Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CHF – June

The LGR Model: Long since April 30

The June Swiss franc opens above the 21-day exponential moving average after sliding in sympathy with the euro on Thursday. It had marked a two-week high on Wednesday. The franc peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and the LGR model is long.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0755. Pivot highs are at 1.0820 and 1.0869.

The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0690. The next floor is 1.0625.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways

MACD: Slightly bullish

Ichimoku: Slightly bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CAD – June

The LGR Model: Long since April 26

The June Canadian opens at a four-day low after peaking at a 2 ½-month high on Wednesday. It closed above the 200-day exponential moving average for two days in a row. It is also trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought. The loonie bottomed at a 7 1/2-month low on March 1.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and the LGR model is long.

The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9825. Further support is at .9785.

A pivot high is at .9938. Further resistance is at 1.0035.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Slightly bullish

Ichimoku: Slightly bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


AUD – June

The LGR Model: Short since April 15

The June Australian dollar opens slightly lower after ending off a 1 ½-week low on Thursday. The Aussie bottomed at a five-week low on April 23 and peaked at a new high for the current leg of the uptrend on April 11. It had formed a peak for the uptrend on January 10 and bottomed on March 4.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.

A pivot low is at 1.0179. Further support is at 1.0128.

The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0284. Further resistance is at 1.0350 and 1.0395.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Slightly bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Bullish