The foreign currencies attempted a recovery in the Far East after the European and commodity currencies sank or two days while the yen struggled higher from near significant lows. The Aussie led the bounce after RBA’s Stevens said the board was prudent to sit still. The Asian stock indexes fell. While the foreseeable appetite for risk remains limited, the European and commodity currencies are oversold in the short term, so the risk is on the upside.

The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all the European and commodity currencies.

Good luck! 


Overnight

  • No data


Today's economic calendar

  • Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for January

  • Germany: IFO - business climate/current assessment/expectations for February

  • Germany: Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter

  • Italy: Consumer Price Index for January

  • Italy: Retail sales for December

  • Italy: Consumer confidence for February


EUR – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 7

The March euro edged up in the Far East after extending recent losses to a 1 ½-month low on Thursday. The euro is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. It moved from a falling wedge to a channel declining since February 1, when it peaked at a 14-month high. The euro bottomed at an over two-year low in July.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.

Immediate resistance is at 1.3275. Further resistance is at 1.3360.

The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3154. Further support is at 1.3072 and 1.3005.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish

LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


JPY – March

The LGR Model: Long since February 8

The severely oversold March Japanese yen is quiet after struggling up to a three-day high on Thursday. It remains close to a 2 1/2-year low. The yen reached the target of a long-term head–and-shoulders pattern in the 1.0610 area. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked on September 13.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0795. Further resistance is at 1.0875.

Initial support is at 1.0655. A pivot low is at 1.0588. Further support is at 1.0518.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish

MACD: Sideways

Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Bearish


GBP – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 11

The March pound is edging up in Asia after bouncing off a new 16-month low on Thursday. It is trading below the bottom of a four-year old symmetrical triangle. The 21-day exponential moving average continues to cap far away and the pound is oversold. The pound had marked a 17-month high on January 2 and bottomed on June 1.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.

Immediate resistance is at 1.5285. The next caps are 1.5355 and 1.5390.

Initial support is at 1.5190. Further support is at 1.5124 and 1.5015.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CHF – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 7

The March Swiss franc is moving up after accelerating recent losses to a one-month low on Thursday. The franc is testing the trend line rising since November. It remains well below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday and is oversold. The franc is trading in a channel rising since November. It peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.

The 200-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0783. The next cap is 1.0891.

Initial support is at 1.0710. A pivot low is at 1.0657.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CAD – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 8

The March Canadian dollar is edging up after falling for four days and marking a seven-month low on Thursday. The loonie reached the target of a short-term bearish flag. The loonie is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It is testing the bottom of a long-term (19-month) symmetrical triangle and the bottom of a channel declining since September. The loonie is also trading below the 50% mark of the June-September uptrend. The Canadian dollar peaked at a 10-month high on February 1.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.

Initial resistance is at .9835. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at .9944.

Immediate support is at .9791. Further support is at .9755 and .9695.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


AUD – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 4

The March Australian dollar is flying higher after extending recent losses to a nine-day on Thursday. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and also below the 200-day-exponential moving average. The Aussie marked a new high for the uptrend on January 10.

The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.

The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.032w. Distant resistance is at 1.0440.

A pivot low is at 1.0200. Further support follows at 1.0155.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways