The foreign currencies attempted a recovery in the Far East after the European and commodity currencies sank or two days while the yen struggled higher from near significant lows. The Aussie led the bounce after RBA’s Stevens said the board was prudent to sit still. The Asian stock indexes fell. While the foreseeable appetite for risk remains limited, the European and commodity currencies are oversold in the short term, so the risk is on the upside.
The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all the European and commodity currencies.
Good luck!
Overnight
- No data
Today's economic calendar
Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for January
Germany: IFO - business climate/current assessment/expectations for February
Germany: Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter
Italy: Consumer Price Index for January
Italy: Retail sales for December
Italy: Consumer confidence for February
EUR – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 7
The March euro edged up in the Far East after extending recent losses to a 1 ½-month low on Thursday. The euro is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. It moved from a falling wedge to a channel declining since February 1, when it peaked at a 14-month high. The euro bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3275. Further resistance is at 1.3360.
The 100-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3154. Further support is at 1.3072 and 1.3005.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
JPY – March
The LGR Model: Long since February 8
The severely oversold March Japanese yen is quiet after struggling up to a three-day high on Thursday. It remains close to a 2 1/2-year low. The yen reached the target of a long-term head–and-shoulders pattern in the 1.0610 area. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked on September 13.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0795. Further resistance is at 1.0875.
Initial support is at 1.0655. A pivot low is at 1.0588. Further support is at 1.0518.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 11
The March pound is edging up in Asia after bouncing off a new 16-month low on Thursday. It is trading below the bottom of a four-year old symmetrical triangle. The 21-day exponential moving average continues to cap far away and the pound is oversold. The pound had marked a 17-month high on January 2 and bottomed on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5285. The next caps are 1.5355 and 1.5390.
Initial support is at 1.5190. Further support is at 1.5124 and 1.5015.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 7
The March Swiss franc is moving up after accelerating recent losses to a one-month low on Thursday. The franc is testing the trend line rising since November. It remains well below the 21-day exponential moving average on Wednesday and is oversold. The franc is trading in a channel rising since November. It peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.
The 200-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0783. The next cap is 1.0891.
Initial support is at 1.0710. A pivot low is at 1.0657.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 8
The March Canadian dollar is edging up after falling for four days and marking a seven-month low on Thursday. The loonie reached the target of a short-term bearish flag. The loonie is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It is testing the bottom of a long-term (19-month) symmetrical triangle and the bottom of a channel declining since September. The loonie is also trading below the 50% mark of the June-September uptrend. The Canadian dollar peaked at a 10-month high on February 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Initial resistance is at .9835. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at .9944.
Immediate support is at .9791. Further support is at .9755 and .9695.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – March
The LGR Model: Short since February 4
The March Australian dollar is flying higher after extending recent losses to a nine-day on Thursday. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and also below the 200-day-exponential moving average. The Aussie marked a new high for the uptrend on January 10.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.032w. Distant resistance is at 1.0440.
A pivot low is at 1.0200. Further support follows at 1.0155.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
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