The financial markets were risk averse on Thursday. The European currencies sank following the ugly, but obviously so, regional GDP reports. The commodity currencies edged up, while the yen remained under pressure. The US stock markets made little progress, while the gold/oil spread declined. The appetite for risk remains low in the medium term.

The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.

Good luck!


Overnight

  • US: Initial jobless claims fell 27,000 to 341,000 in the week ended February 9th from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000 (from 366,000).


Today's economic calendar

  • China: Foreign Direct Investment for January

  • Japan: Industrial production for December

  • Japan: Bank of Japan monthly economic survey for February


EUR – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 7

The March euro sank a three-week low on Thursday after the ugly regional GDP data. It is now trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro peaked at a 14-month high on February 1 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.

Initial support is at 1.3280. Further support is at 1.3195.

The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.3415. Further resistance is at 1.3525 and 1.3560.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish

LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


JPY – March

The LGR Model: Long since February 8

The severely oversold March Japanese yen consolidated on Thursday and remains close to a 2 1/2-year low. The yen reached the target of a long-term head–and-shoulders pattern in the 1.0610 area. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked on September 13.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.

A pivot low is at 1.0588. Further support is at 1.0500.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0765. The next cap is 1.0820.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

MACD: Sideways

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Bearish


GBP – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 11

The March pound extended recent losses to a six-month low. It broke the bottom of a four-year old symmetrical triangle. The pound is seeking the target of a medium-term double top in the 1.5400 area. The 21-day exponential moving average continues to cap. The pound had marked a 17-month high on January 2 and bottomed on June 1.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and the LGR model is short.

Initial support is at 1.5456. Further support is at 1.5390, 1.5335 and 1.5267.

Immediate resistance is at 1.5570. The next cap is 1.5625. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.5752.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CHF – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 7

The March Swiss franc ended off a 2 1/2-week low on Thursday, sliding in sync with the euro. The franc is trading in a channel rising since November. It peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.

Initial support is at 1.0770. A pivot low is at 1.0657.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0895. The next cap is at 1.0973. The top of the uptrend is at 1.1090.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Slightly bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CAD – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 8

The March Canadian dollar climbed to a four-day high on Thursday, recovering further from a two-week low on Tuesday. The loonie is still trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. It is trading below the 50% mark of the June-September uptrend. The Canadian dollar peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and bottomed at a six-month low on January 25.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.

The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0006. A short-term pivot high is at 1.0059.

Immediate support is at .9955. A pivot low is at .9889. Further support is at .9825.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

MACD: Sideways

Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways


AUD – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 4

The March Australian dollar made little progress on Thursday after advancing to a one-week high on Wednesday and reversing from a near four-month low on Tuesday. It is testing the 100-day exponential moving average. The Aussie marked a new high for the uptrend on January 10.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.

The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0357. Further resistance is at 1.0440.

Initial support is at 1.0265. Further support follows at 1.0200, 1.0155 and 1.0100.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways