The appetite for risk remains limited ahead of the US open. Only the euro is steady, while the commodity currencies, pound and yen open further down. The Asian stock indexes ended divergently. The European bourses are mixed, while the US stock markets are lower in pre-open trading. Gold, oil and silver are lower as well. The appetite for risk remains low in the medium term.

The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long the pound and yen, and short euro, franc and the commodity currencies.

Good luck!


Overnight

  • Australia: National Australia Bank's business confidence rose to 3 in January from 2 in December. Business conditions improved to -2 from -5.

  • Japan: The consumer confidence index rose to 43.3 in January from 39.2 in December.

  • Japan: Machine tool orders fell 26.1% y-o-y in December following -21.3% in November.

  • France: The current account deficit increased to EUR3.6 billion in December from EUR2.8 billion in November.

  • UK: The RICS housing price balance fell 4.0% on year in January following the downwardly revised 1.0% contraction.

  • UK: The DCLG house price index increased 3.3% on an annual basis in December, faster than the 2.2% gain recorded in November

  • UK: The output price index rose 0.2% in January from flat in December. The core PPI rose 0.2% from 0. The input price index fell 0.5% after rising 0.5% and the core input PPI rose 0.2% following -.1%.

  • UK: Leading Economic Index rose 0.1% in January, less than 0.2% in December.

  • Switzerland: The consumer price index fell 0.3% in January compared to -0.2% in December.


Today's economic calendar

  • No data


EUR – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 7

The March euro opens little changed around the 21-day exponential moving average after falling for most of last week. It hit a two-week low on Friday. The euro peaked at a 14-month high on February 1. The euro bottomed at an over two-year low in July.

The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.

Immediate resistance is at 1.3430. Further resistance is at 1.3560.

Initial support is at 1.3355. Further support is at 1.3280.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Bullish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways

MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish

LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


JPY – March

The LGR Model: Long since February 8

The severely oversold March Japanese yen remains heavy near a 2 1/2-year low. The yen reached the target of a long-term head–and-shoulders pattern in the 1.0610 area. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked on September 13.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.

A pivot low is at 1.0588. Further support is at 1.0500 and 1.0475.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0700. The next cap is 1.0820.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Bearish


GBP – March

The LGR Model: Long since February 7

The March pound opens under further down at a six-month low. The gains on Friday were rejected by the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound is seeking the target of a medium-term double top in the 1.5400 area. It also broke the bottom of a long-term (four-year) triangle in the 1.56 area. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average but is not oversold any more. The pound had marked a 17-month high on January 2 and bottomed on June 1.

The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is long.

Initial support is at 1.5535. Further support is at 1.5490 and 1.5420.

Immediate resistance is at 1.5630. The next cap is 1.5720. The 21-day exponential moving average resists at a distant 1.54796.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Sideways

Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CHF – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 7

The March Swiss franc opens at a near two-week low. The franc is trading in a medium-term symmetrical triangle. It peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.

Initial support is at 1.0820. Further support is at 1.0770.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0925. The next cap is at 1.0973. The top of the uptrend is at 1.1090.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Sideways

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish

LONG-TERM: Sideways


CAD – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 8

The March Canadian dollar is falling for a fourth day and opens at a two-week low in the US. The loonie is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. It is trading below the 50% mark of the June-September uptrend. The Canadian dollar peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and bottomed at a six-month low on January 25.

The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.

A pivot low is at .9889. Further support is at .9825.

Immediate resistance is at .9975. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0007. A short-term pivot high is at 1.0059.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Slightly bearish

Ichimoku: Slightly bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways


AUD – March

The LGR Model: Short since February 4

The March Australian dollar resumed losses and opens at a near four-month low and below the 200-day exponential moving average. The Aussie marked a new high for the uptrend on January 10.

The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.

Initial support is at 1.0155. Further support follows at 1.0100.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0297. The 100-day exponential moving average caps at 1.0325 and the 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0358.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish

MACD: Bearish

Ichimoku: Bearish

OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish

MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways

LONG-TERM: Sideways