Once again, politicians have taken to their battle to the public

The appetite for risk improved late Wednesday on hopes that the negotiations to avoid the “fiscal cliff” might succeed by or around Christmas. Once again, politicians have taken to their battle to the public, so a success would put them in a better light. It’s a very long and hard way to reaching any iota of success, while the market will overreact to both good and bad rumors.

The foreign currencies ended either flat or higher after recovering early losses; the yen extended its recovery from last week’s 7-1/2-month low. The US stock markets closed up. Gold, oil and silver ended down.

The short-term outlook for the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on all European currencies. Good luck!

Overnight

  • US: New home sales edged down 0.3% to an annual rate of 368,000 in October from the revised September rate of 369,000 (originally 389,000).
     
     

Today's economic calendar

  • Japan: Retail trade for October 
  • Australia: HIA New Home Sales  for October 
  • Australia: Private capital expenditure for the third quarter 
     
     

EUR – December

The LGR Model: Long since November 12        
 
The December euro ended flat after bouncing off a three-day low on Wednesday. It had marked a 3 1/2-week high on Tuesday. It is holding above the 21-day exponential moving average. The euro formed a short-term bullish reversal on November 13. The euro had peaked near a four-month high on September 17 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.3012. Further resistance is at 1.3090.
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.2897 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.2865. Distant support is at 1.2739.   


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways  
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

JPY – December

The LGR Model: Short since September 28             
 
The oversold December Japanese yen extended its recovery to a four-day high on Wednesday after bottoming at a 7 ½-month low late last week. It trades well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish my model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.2240. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant 1.2361.
Immediate support is at 1.2165. Further support is at 1.2074 and 1.2040.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways   
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish   

 

GBP – December

The LGR Model: Long since November 12                  

The December pound recovered early losses and closed flat on Wednesday after reaching a three-week high on Tuesday. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. The pound marked a new high for the uptrend on September and bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.6050. A medium-term peak is at 1.6173.
The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.5977. Further support is at 1.5890.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways   
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – December

The LGR Model: Short since November 12  

The December Swiss franc reversed from a three-day low and closed up on Wednesday after rising to a five-week high late last week. It trades above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc peaked at a high for the uptrend on October 17 and bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Friday’s high is 1.0837. The top of the uptrend is at 1.0861. 
The 200-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0730 and the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.0676. Distant support is at 1.0580.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways  
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CAD – December

The LGR Model: Short since November 12

The December Canadian dollar closed up on Wednesday after falling from a three-week high on Tuesday. The Canadian dollar had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14 and a significant bottom on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0085. Further resistance is at 1.0155. 
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0037. Further support is at .9936.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

AUD – December

The LGR Model: Long since October 16

The December Australian dollar closed up on Wednesday after reaching an over two-month high on Tuesday. It trades well above the 21-day exponential moving average. The latest leg of the uptrend started on June 4. The Aussie marked a high for the uptrend on September 14.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Tuesday’s top is 1.0473. A significant peak is at 1.0537.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0372 and the 100-day exponential moving average at 1.0270.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish 
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

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