The market had limited appetite for risk on Thursday

The market had limited appetite for risk on Thursday following new evidence of economic slowdown in China and the Eurozone. The European and commodity currencies fell and the yen extended gains after reversing aggressively from a near a one-month low the day before. The US stock indexes ended little changed.

The short-term outlook for the European and commodity currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is slightly bullish. The LGR short-term model is long on all foreign currencies.

Good luck!

 

Overnight

  • US: The jobless claims “slipped” to 382,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000 (from the 382,000 originally reported for the previous week).
  • US: The Markit manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.5 in September.
  • US: The leading economic index fell 0.1% in August following a revised 0.5% increase in July.
  • US: The Philly Fed’s diffusion index of current activity rose to -1.9 in September from -7.1 in August.

 

Today's economic calendar

  • Australia: Conference Board Leading Index for July 

 

EUR – December

Luca Model: Long since August 3        
 
The overbought December euro fell to a one-week low on Thursday after peaking near a four-month high on Monday. It is overbought and trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. The euro had bottomed an over two-year low in late July and remains in a rising channel.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average supports at 1.2893. The 21-day exponentially smoothed moving average support is at 1.2802.
Initial resistance is at 1.3020. The next cap is at 1.3095. A pivot high is at 1.3183.


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

JPY – December

Luca Model: Long since August 22             
 
The December Japanese yen remained firm and closed around the 21-day exponential moving average on Thursday. The bottom of its channel rising since late June provided excellent support. It had peaked at a seven-month high on September 13. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2855. The next resistance level is 1.2880. 
Initial support is at 1.2725. Further support is at 1.2630.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways  

 

GBP – December

Luca Model: Long since July 19                  

The overbought December pound sank to a four-day low on Thursday after marking a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The pound had bottomed at a 4 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.6140. The next floor is 1.6070. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6017. 
Initial resistance is at 1.6230. A pivot high is at 1.6268.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – December

Luca Model: Long since August 3  

The overbought December Swiss franc fell to a one-week low on Thursday after marking a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The franc is trading below its 200-day exponential moving average. It had bottomed at a 19-month low on July 24. The franc has been trading a rising channel since then.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0645. The 21-day exponential moving average follows at 1.0607. 
The 200-day exponentially smoothed moving average caps at 1.0756. A pivot high is at 1.0838. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CAD – December

Luca Model: Long since June 29

The overbought December Canadian dollar sank to a near two-week low on Thursday after spiking to a new high for the uptrend on September 14. The Canadian dollar has been trading in a channel rising since late July. It bottomed at a 5 1/2-month low on June 1. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0169. Further support is at 1.0060.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0245. A pivot high is at 1.0359.  


INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

AUD – December

Luca Model: Long since September 7

The December Australian dollar declined to a nine-day low on Thursday, the third slide in four days. It marked a new high for the uptrend on September 14. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie, which has been advancing since June 4, peaked at a new high for the uptrend on August 9. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at 1.0250. Further support is at 1.0190.
Initial resistance is at 1.0360. Further resistance is at 1.0430. A pivot high is at 1.0537.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish 
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish   
LONG-TERM: Sideways

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