Sterling clocked a fresh 7-year low of 1.3835 on Monday before the corrective forces took control and ensured the spot ended the day higher at 1.3912. USD selling gathered pace in the NY session after the Chicago PMI figure showed the manufacturing sector recession worsened in February. The housing data was weak as well. Still, the pair backed off from 1.3946 to end the day at 1.3912 levels. The spot traded on a front foot in Asia; and now attempting to take out previous day’s high.
Eyes UK PMI manufacturing report
Consensus estimates say we are in for another month of slowdown in the manufacturing activity. The headline figure is seen at 52.2 as against January’s 52.9. Cable could see a knee jerk reaction on the higher side if the actual figure is higher than estimates. The currency is oversold and is looking out for reasons to correct.
The focus would also be on the details- new orders index (new orders from abroad) and employment index. A strong overseas order inflow could be an indication of exports picking up pace in next month (i.e. in March/April).
In case, the PMI prints below estimates Sterling could re-test the 7-year low of 1.3835 set on Monday. Traders should also take a note of the fact that PMI is nearing 50.00 levels. A weaker-than-expected figure could push the headline dangerously close to contraction territory.
Technicals – Bullish RSI divergence confirmed on daily chart but support at 1.3924 should prevail
Bullish price RSI divergence on the daily chart followed by a break above 1.3924 (50-MA + 76.4% Fibo expansion of July 2014 high-April 2015 low-June 2015 high) indicates the corrective rally could be extended to 1.40 – 1.4032 (23.6% of 1.4669-1.3835) levels.
On the other hand, A failure to sustain above key support zone of 1.3924 – 1.3920 (5-DMA) followed by a break below the falling trend line support on the hourly chart at 1.3886 would shift risk in favor of a drop to fresh 7-year low below 1.3835.
EUR/USD Analysis: EUR to track German bond yields ahead of ECB
The EUR/USD pair fell to a low of 1.0859 levels on Monday before recovering slightly to end the day around 1.0872. The common currency was offered across the board after the preliminary Eurozone CPI reading for February missed estimated by a big margin. Not only the headline CPI, but even the core figure was way below what economists had expected. The drop in the core figure heightened speculation of a more aggressive easing by the ECB next week.
Expectations surrounding next week’s ECB rate decision
Markets believe a 10 basis point cut in deposit rate is a done deal. Reuters survey of 18 economists revealed the same
A significant majority also expects the bank to expand its QE program by EUR 10-30 billion. But economists polled by Reuters have said the probability is at coin toss levels.
Focus on German bond yields
The PMI manufacturing figure due for release today across Eurozone, if weaker-than-expected, could add to speculation that ECB would act more aggressively next week.
The immediate effect of such speculation should be evident in the German bond yields. The 2-yr yield has already priced-in a 10bps deposit rate cut. The 9-year yield is in negative and the 10-yr yield is just 10bps away from Zero.
The sell-off in EUR could continue if the 2-yr yield drops to fresh record lows below -0.575% and the 10-yr yield drops below 0.049%. If the yields remain resilient, an uptick in EUR could be seen; especially if the equities remain risk-off.
Technicals – Sell-off could continue below 1.0868
Euro’s bearish break from the rising trend line on the daily closing basis, followed by a bearish closing below falling trend line (extended) support on Monday has opened doors for a 1.0750 levels.
The daily RSI, below 50.00, is also in support of a continuation of a bearish trend.
However, bullish Price-RSI divergence on the hourly chart could see the spot re-test hourly 50-MA at 1.0919.
Overall, the pair is likely to be offered on upticks as long as we do not see a daily closing above rising trend line level of 1.0982.
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