Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
As we come into FOMC day I do not feel that it is necessarily a coincidence that the euro is settling to trade around the $1.1050 pivot that I have been talking about for so many weeks now. The rebound in the last week of so has unwound the euro from the key support around $1.0820 and I see this in the technical sense as a rally that is a chance to sell. However I am also obviously aware that the FOMC decision tonight could have a significant impact on direction. Leaving that aside though, the 144 day ma at $1.1110 remains a barrier to the upside, whilst the lower high resistance comes in at $1.1215. The hourly chart shows an uptrend intact in the past week but is being threatened today, with the support initially coming in at yesterday’s low of $1.1020 (which was also the breakout from the resistance on 23rd July). I would not expect too much movement in front of the FOMC and then volatility in the reaction after. Mixed signals therefore on the euro with positive near term but still seen as being a rally that is a chance to sell. The FOMC is likely to give the direction.
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