KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Currencies
EUR/USD
EUR/USD downtrend slows (at least temporary) as further ECB easing is not evident in the near future. The Fed also ponders the impact of a strong dollar on the US economy.
EUR/GBP
A test of the EUR/GBP 0.7755 support was rejected even as the Scottish referendum is out of the way. Soft BoE talk prevents further GBP gains, for now.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY rally runs into resistance in the 110 area as markets questions the timing of the Fed rate hikes. Japanese policymakers doubt the merits of aggressive yen weakening, too.
EUR/CZK
Czech koruna returns to the mid EUR/CZK 27 area. The Czech national bank wants to defend the 27 barrier longer than initially expected, but a rise of the reference rate is unlikely.
EUR/HUF
Forint finally stages a decent comeback as NMB halted its rate cut cycle.
EUR/PLN
The zloty holds remarkably strong even as the NBP surprised with a 50 basis points rate cut.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.