Market Morning Briefing


Mixed picture again in Asia-Pac today, with indices ranging from -0.81% (China) to +0.50% (Singapore). Japan is closed today on account of Vernal Equinox, but the Nikkei faces strong Resistance overhead, as seen on the Weekly candles on the following page:

The Dow managed to close higher by a hair's breadth, up 0.05% at 13239.13. There's a good upward channel that suggests a rise to 13450 in the coming days.

The Nifty (5257.05) and Sensex (17273.37) have closed at important Supports yesterday. They have to attract buyers today, else they could be in for a biggish fall.

Nymex Crude (107.50) is consolidating between 104 on the downside and 108.20 on the upside over the last few days. The immediate outlook is mixed. However, our overall bias remains bullish with strong Support in 104-103 region.

Gold (1655.80) is not gaining upside momentum and can fall to 1600 on a strong break below 1650.

Silver (32.66) remains lower. The sharp fall from its high near 37.50 leaves the bigger picture bearish for a revisit of 28 on the downside.

Copper (3.87) remains within its 3.70-4.00 sideways range. We will have to wait for a breakout of this sideways range which would determine the further direction of move.

The Euro (1.3233) has found Support near the 8-DMA (1.3137) and has risen above 1.3200. A further rise to 1.3300 or even higher levels is possible now while above 1.3200. Dollar-Yen (83.49) remains above 83 and has Resistance near 83.70 which needs to be broken for it to rise further towards 84.35-50. The Euro-Yen Cross (110.46) has risen sharply. It has immediate Resistance at 110.50 (100-Week-MA) and then at 111.20 which could be tested today. A break above these Resistances can trigger further rise to 113.50.

Dollar-Swiss (0.9123) is looking weak and can test 0.9000 on the downside. Cable (1.5872) is trading in a broad range of 1.5600-6000 and can rise towards the upper end of this range while above 1.5850. Aussie (1.0561) is not gaining strength break above 1.0600 strongly and can test 1.0500 on the downside while below 1.0600.

In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1123 and the Sing-DOllar is trading near 1.2587. Dollar-Rupee (50.2350) had closed higher and could be ranged between 50.00-40 for some time.

European yields have been rising all through last week, especially German yields. The 5-Yr (1.0731) rose above 1.00 on Friday, but could find Resistance near current levels, as can be seen on the last chart on the following page:

A rising yield differential between Bunds and Bonds (2-yr differential is -0.04%, compared to -0.20% about a week ago) is good for the Euro. But, the yields in the more vulnerable countries have also been rising and that is not very good news. For instance, the Italian 2-Yr yield has risen from 1.74% on 08-Mar to 2.30% yesterday.

US Yields themselves have been rising, with the 5-Yr (1.2%) well above 1.0% now. Take a look at

So far, rising yields have not led to an increase in Libors. But, people may well say that LIBOR has lost its sanctity in any case. All eyes in the market will be on interest rates for some time.

9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST Jan UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 3.4% ...Previous 3.6%

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST Jan US Housing Starts
...Expected 0.70 Mln ...Previous 0.70 Mln

No major data release yesterday.

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