Weekly review for the last week’s macro scan reports starts off on a disappointing note with EUR/JPY and USD/CAD outlook did not fare as anticipated, although the next two reports on the CAD/JPY and gold came almost in line with expectations.
The first macro report titled “EUR/JPY likely to test 135.90 levels ahead of Friday's NFP†published on March 2, anticipated a sharp rally in the EUR/JPY pair to 135.92 levels before Friday’s NFP data. The given analysis and projections did not work as expected largely as the shared currency remained unresponsive to encouraging Euro zone data and fell further to fresh twelve year lows on ECB’s QE launch announcement at ECB’s meeting, dragging the cross lower to 132 levels on March 5. However, as anticipated EUR/JPY did fall to 132 levels on a failure to breach 135 barrier.
The second report titled “USD/CAD could rise to 1.2580 on Canada's GDP data†published on March 3, did not work well too as the uptrend to 1.2580 levels was forecasted on expectations of a sluggish Canada’s growth numbers. However, the view failed big time as the pair fell to levels just ahead of 1.24 mark after Canada’s GDP data surprised markets on the upside, as it expanded 2.4% in Q4 2014, which came in above consensus. The better- than expected data signaled that the bank might wait before lowering the rate again boosted the Canadian dollar, triggering a fresh sell-off sub 1.2500 levels in USD/CAD.
The third report titled “CAD/JPY likely to test 96.40 on BOC status-quo†published on March 4 worked better than anticipated. The view surpassed expectations as Bank of Canada (BOC) left its monetary policy unchanged which sparked a rally in CAD across the board, pushing the CAD/JPY to highs at 96.48 on March 4. The cross extended gains on March 5 and hit fresh monthly highs at 96.82 levels.
Finally, the last report titled “Gold prices could rebound to 100-DMA placed at 1215 levels on Friday's NFP†published on March 5 also fared well as the report was contingent on the US nonfarm payrolls data coming in below estimates. However, the US jobs data surprised markets and the reading for February came in at 295K, beating forecast of 240K. The January reading was 239K, revised down from 257K. Consequently, the gold prices slumped and scored a low of 1163.87 levels post data release. The move was pretty much in line with what was expected in the report – bullish NFP data “may drag the gold lower to 1180 (Jan 2015 Lows) levels and below that doors would open for a retest of 1167 levelsâ€.
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