Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
The hard landing in Chinese construction looks set to be ending. We look for a gradual recovery of the construction sector over the next year.
The sharp slowdown in construction has been a heavy drain on China’s economy and global commodity markets over the past two years. A recovery of this sector could prove an important game changer for industries, countries and markets exposed to Chinese construction.
It would thus give support to Chinese equities and global risk sentiment, as it reduces the risk of an overall hard landing in China.
Global commodity markets and commodity exporters is also to benefit. China consumes around half of most base metals in the world and is a major driver of iron ore, copper and other raw materials.
A rise in commodity demand would in turn give relief to commodity-exporting emerging market countries such as Brazil and Chile and benefit Australia’s exports of iron ore. It would also dampen deflationary pressure in China - and globally. Easing deflation fears will underpin higher bond yields during 2016.
Finally, a recovery in the construction sector would alleviate some of China’s challenges with overcapacity in the steel, cement, aluminium and glass sectors and support Chinese developers. These are the areas where the majority of nonperforming loans are centred. Hence, a turn in construction would work to dampen the rise of non-performing loans and alleviate the pressure on banks.
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