Marshall Gittler
Trading Analysis
GBP/USD
The dollar traded mixed against the other G10 currencies during the European morning Tuesday. It outperformed CHF, SEK, JPY and NOK in that order, while it was lower versus NZD, AUD and GBP. The greenback traded in a quiet mode against EUR and CAD.
The pound was among the winners after the 1st estimate of the UK GDP show that growth accelerated to +0.7% qoq in Q2 from +0.4% qoq in Q1. The figure was in line with market expectations, but given the weak industrial production in April and May and the poor retail sales figures in Q2, there was a high probability of a disappointment. Accelerating growth alongside accelerating wages and the recent hawkish comments by several central bank members could even bring forward expectations for a rate hike. EUR/GBP fell below the key support line of 0.7100 following the release. This raises some concerns on the continuation of the short-term uptrend started on the 17th of July. For now I would expect the negative move to continue and perhaps challenge the 0.7050 barrier in the near future.
GBP/USD traded higher during the European morning Tuesday following the UK GDP data. The rate emerged above the resistance (now turned into support) barrier of 1.5595 (S1), marked by yesterday's peak, and I would expect it to continue higher and challenge the next hurdle of 1.5670 (R1). Our short-term oscillators detect positive momentum and support the case for the continuation of the bullish wave. The RSI moved above its 50 line and is now headed towards its 70 barrier, while the MACD, already above its trigger line, has turned positive. As for the bigger picture, on the 24th of July, the rate rebounded from 1.5465 (S1), which currently coincides with the 80-day exponential moving average. This makes me believe that the overall picture remains somewhat positive and that there is still the likelihood for the rate to trade higher in the not-to-distant future.
Support: 1.5595 (S1), 1.5530 (S2), 1.5465 (S3)
Resistance: 1.5670 (R1), 1.5735 (R2), 1.5780 (R3)
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remained bid above 0.6500
AUD/USD extended further its bullish performance, advancing for the fourth session in a row on Thursday, although a sustainable breakout of the key 200-day SMA at 0.6526 still remain elusive.
EUR/USD faces a minor resistance near at 1.0750
EUR/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s small downtick and resumed its uptrend north of 1.0700 the figure, always on the back of the persistent sell-off in the US Dollar ahead of key PCE data on Friday.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
Bitcoin price continues to get rejected from $65K resistance as SEC delays decision on spot BTC ETF options
Bitcoin (BTC) price has markets in disarray, provoking a broader market crash as it slumped to the $62,000 range on Thursday. Meanwhile, reverberations from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to influence the market.
US economy: slower growth with stronger inflation
The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.