USD/SEK
The absence of any major news or events during the European morning Monday, translated into a relatively narrow range in most currencies. The dollar was higher against JPY, GBP, AUD, SEK and NOK, in that order, while it was lower against NZD, CHF and EUR. The greenback was stable vs CAD.
USD/SEK had a very intense intraday movement as it rose 300 pips before the country’s retail sales were released, dropped 300 pips after the figure was out and bounced back up in the following minutes. The initial advance came after a report revealed talks between Swedish Government with Alliance opposition that may allow the country to avoid snap election. The government is expected to announce new elections in March next year, despite being only two months in office, after its budget proposal was rejected earlier this month. The decision will not be officially announced until Dec. 29, as the Swedish Constitution states that a government has to have been in power for at least 3 months before it can call for another election. Later in the day the country’s retail sales rose 0.5% mom in November, at a slower pace from October but better than the forecasts. USD/SEK dipped 0.4% but recovered immediately and advanced even more in the following minutes. I expect the weakening fundamentals and the risk in politics to weigh on SEK, leaving it vulnerable in the following months.
USD/SEK firmed up during the European morning Monday but the move was halted by the 7.7530 (R1) resistance level. A break above that hurdle could push the rate to even higher levels perhaps towards our next resistance line of 7.7940 (R2). Our short-term oscillators support a small halt in the advance as the RSI lies just below its overbought territory and moves along its 70 line, while the MACD, already positive remains above its trigger line. These momentum signals support my view that a break above the 7.7530 (R1) level is necessary for another leg up. In the bigger picture, the rate is trading above the black uptrend line drawn from the low of the 14th of October and above the light blue line taken from the low of 19th March. This confirms that the overall outlook of the pair is to the upside.
Support: 7.6500 (S1), 7.6010 (S2), 7.5300 (S3) .
Resistance: 7.7530 (R1), 7.7940 (R2), 7.8370 (R3).
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0800 as trading action turns subdued
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0800 on Thursday and remains on track to end the day in negative territory following upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US. The action in financial markets turn subdued as trading volumes thin out heading into Easter holiday.
GBP/USD extends sideways grind above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.