Marshall Gittler
Trading Analysis
AUD/USD
The dollar traded mixed against the other G10 currencies during the European morning Wednesday. It was higher against SEK, CHF, NOK and EUR, while it depreciated against AUD, NZD and CAD. It remained near its opening levels against JPY and GBP.
The Aussie was the main gainer as the RBA Governor Stevens said Australia’s economy may strengthen in 2014 and that there are encouraging early signs of a handover from mining-led demand to domestic consumption.
The Swedish Krona fell after Sweden’s consumer confidence index for March fell to 99.6, missing market expectations of a rise to 101.8 (previous = 100.3). The country’s trade surplus for February came at SEK 5.0bn, below forecasts of SEK 6.1bn, while January’s figure was revised down to SEK 5.1bn from SEK 5.8bn. This pushed the Krona even lower.
The euro held yesterday’s decline after the efforts by Eurozone officials to talk down the currency.
AUD/USD moved significantly higher, breaking above the 0.9140 hurdle. I would expect the rate to continue its advance and challenge the resistance of 0.9270 (R1), where a clear upward violation may pave the way towards the bar of 0.9450 (R2). The pair is trading above both the moving averages and the blue uptrend line, thus the overall short term picture remains positive. Nonetheless, since the rate broke the upper Bollinger Band, while the RSI lies within its overbought territory, a price pullback upon the oscillators exit from the extreme conditions is possible.
Support: 0.9140 (S1), 0.9000 (S2), 0.8925 (S3)
Resistance: 0.9270 (R1), 0.9450 (R2), 0.9545 (R3)
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