Is it a case of stabilizing euro or falling USD? The balance of risks in FX is shifting from waning event risk in Eurozone to question markets about US growth (slowing services ISM, jobless claims and NFP). EURUSD posts its 5th consecutive daily rise—the longest series of advances since December. But the medium term picture for the single currency remains doubtful. We issued 3 new trades in EURUSD last night, 2 of which are currently in progress.

One key source of volatility is Wednesday's release of the FOMC minutes. Each of the last 3 releases of the FOMC minutes has led to a rallying USD and tumbling gold. But this time it may be different. Although we may hear of the usual discussions about slowing down the pace of asset purchases, Friday's disappointing NFP will likely reduce markets' sensitivity to the hawkish deliberations and lead to selling any USD-bounce with greater confidence.