The polling stations in Scotland closed at 2200BST and there appears to have been a massive turnout. Reports coming from the North suggest that 90% of voters turned up, with 97% of the Scottish electorate registered to vote.
This could be good for either side. The No camp is banking on it negating the SNP’s ground campaign and it may mean some “shy No’s”, if there are any, cast their votes. On the side voting for Scottish independence, the large turnout may mean that a lot of people who don’t typically vote wanted their voices heard, and it is believed they are more inclined to vote Yes.
Last YouGov poll points to a win for No
There are no official exit polls, but the unofficial polls are giving the edge to the No campaign. The GBP leaped higher after a poll from YouGov predicted a 54-46 win for No. In fact, the YouGov president, Peter Kellner, even came out and told Newsnight he thinks that there is a 99% chance of a No victory, which is far more confident than Kellner was sounding even yesterday.
The market favours No
The lack of official exit polls means it probably too early to call at this stage, but the reaction of the market so far seems to suggest that investors are giving the No camp the benefit of the doubt. GBPSD smashed through resistance around 1.6400 on the back of the YouGov poll, but has since retraced a little. The market is clearly very jumpy and we suspect it’s going to get a lot more interesting as votes starts rolling in. A Yes win would obviously be devastating for the pound, but we could see a strong knee-jerk leap higher from GBP if the No vote succeeds.
What to expect
By 0200BST the first results should start trickling across the news wires, but it will be a while before we have enough votes to see which camp is likely to win. If the No camp grabs the lead early on, it will make it very hard for the Yes movement to overtake given the schedule by which the results of particular declarations will be announced. In any event, it’s looking like we will have the final result by around 0700 at the latest.
Source: FOREX.com
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