AUD's big day


Best analysis

It’s another big day for the Australian dollar as it awaits the release of economic growth figures and a speech by RBA Governor Stevens. Yesterday’s monetary policy meeting at the RBA proved to be largely a non-event for the aussie, but widespread USD strength has weakened AUDUSD.

Today, the market is focused on Australia’s Q2 GDP numbers which are due out shortly (0130GMT). The current consensus estimates put the headline growth figure at 0.4% over the quarter. However, some analysts have revised their forecasts higher after last week’s strong CAPEX report and other economic data, and we also think the market may be pleasantly surprised by today’s GDP data.

In regards to policy, the RBA won’t be surprised by a growth rate around 0.4% last quarter, which should put overall growth somewhere around 3.0% y/y. If the number is higher than expected we expect to see a positive reaction from the Australian dollar, although the RBA may attempt to downplay it. -

It’s unclear if Stevens will talk about today’s GDP data during his speech in Adelaide at around 0330GMT, but he may touch on it given that he is speaking to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia. If he does, he may attempt to downplay a better than expected number by talking down the Australian dollar. Obviously, this is pure speculation.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD remains trapped in a medium-term trading range, with resistance around 0.9375 and support around 0.9235. At this point it looks like the pair could test the bottom of the aforementioned trading range, but in the absence of a major shock from today’s GDP data or Stevens or a big USD move, it’s unlikely the pair will be able to break this level in the short-term.

Source: FOREX.com

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0800 as trading action turns subdued

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0800 as trading action turns subdued

EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0800 on Thursday and remains on track to end the day in negative territory following upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US. The action in financial markets turn subdued as trading volumes thin out heading into Easter holiday.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD extends sideways grind above 1.2600

GBP/USD extends sideways grind above 1.2600

GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.

GBP/USD News

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200

Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.

Gold News

XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC

XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC

XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase. 

Read more

Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2

Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2

Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures